Should I Buy CWAN? CWAN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Clearwater Analytics Holdings Inc (CWAN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

23.850

1 Day change

1.58%

52 Week Range

32.000

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now as a deal-arbitrage setup: shares at ~$23.45 vs definitive cash take-private price $24.55 implies ~4%+ upside if the transaction closes.
Technicals are extremely oversold (RSI_6 ~9), supporting a near-term rebound toward the deal price.
Upside is capped near $24.55, so this is a quick, event-driven buy rather than a long-duration compounder entry.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bearish near-term momentum—MACD histogram -0.164 and negatively expanding suggests sellers still in control.
Oversold: RSI_6 at 9.256 is deeply oversold, often followed by a snapback/bounce.
Levels: Price ($23.45) is near S1 (23.502) and above S2 (23.248). A bounce target is Pivot 23.913, then R1 24.323 and the deal level area near R2 24.577 / $24.55.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest a potential base forming, but confirmation would be a reclaim of ~23.91–24.32 zone.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Neutral

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put/call open interest ratio at 0.24 indicates call-heavy positioning (bullish tilt).
Activity: Today’s option volume is elevated vs 30-day average (3.26x), consistent with event-driven trading around the take-private.
Volatility: 30D IV 42.35 vs historical vol 23.63, with IV percentile 99.2—options are pricing substantial event risk; near-term moves are being actively hedged/speculated.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Definitive take-private agreement at $24.55/share in cash (primary catalyst; effectively anchors upside).
- Analyst commentary indicates deal completion is viewed as highly likely (Wells Fargo explicitly notes high likelihood).
- Business momentum: Generali Deutschland selected CWAN’s platform to oversee a €40B unit-linked fund—validates product and supports fundamental narrative.
- Flow/support: Hedge funds are buying (reported +495.69% QoQ buying amount).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Momentum is still bearish (MACD weakening); price is below key pivot/resistance, so bounce may take time.
- Insider selling flagged (+600.64% over last month), which can pressure sentiment even with a deal in place.
- Options imply elevated uncertainty (very high IV percentile), reflecting the market’s focus on deal/closing path.
- Net losses widened in the latest provided quarter despite strong revenue growth, which limits fundamental enthusiasm outside the deal context.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Growth: Revenue $205.11M, up +77.08% YoY (strong top-line expansion).
Profitability: Net income -$10.34M (down -384.79% YoY) and EPS -$0.04 (down -300% YoY) indicate worsening losses.
Margins: Gross margin 65.56%, down -10.11% YoY—suggests cost pressure or mix shift despite growth.
Near-term watch: Next earnings scheduled QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-25 (after hours), though deal dynamics may dominate price action.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Analysts moved from bullish to neutral after the take-private agreement, with price targets reset to the deal price.
Key changes: UBS downgraded to Neutral with PT $24.55 (from $30); Wells Fargo downgraded to Equal Weight with PT $24.55 (from $27).
Prior view (pre-deal): Some analysts saw $30–$34 potential in a buyout scenario (DA Davidson), but post-agreement the Street largely treats the stock as a merger-arb instrument.
Wall Street pros/cons: Pro—high perceived probability of closing and clear cash value anchor; Con—limited upside above $24.55 and reduced need for fundamental rerating while awaiting completion.

10 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CWAN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CWAN is 27.83 USD with a low forecast of 24.55 USD and a high forecast of 36 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

5 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 23.480

Low

24.55

Averages

27.83

High

Current: 23.480

Low

24.55

Averages

27.83

High

UBS

Buy -> Neutral

downgrade

$30

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$30

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

downgrade

Buy -> Neutral

Reason

UBS downgraded Clearwater Analytics to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $24.55, down from $30, after the company reached an agreement to be acquired by an investor group led by Permira and Warburg Pincus for $24.55 per share in cash.

Wells Fargo

Michael Turrin

Overweight -> Equal Weight

downgrade

$27

2026-01-08

Reason

Wells Fargo

Michael Turrin

Price Target

$27

2026-01-08

downgrade

Overweight -> Equal Weight

Reason

Wells Fargo analyst Michael Turrin downgraded Clearwater Analytics to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $24.55, down from $27, following the company's agreement to be taken private at $24.55 per share by a Premira and Warburg Pincus led investor group. Wells views deal completion as highly likely.

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CWAN Should I Buy

CWAN Should I Buy

Should You Buy Clearwater Analytics Holdings Inc (CWAN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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