Not a good buy right now: the stock just broke below a key support band (S1 ~628.65) on a sharp -7.88% drop, which typically signals near-term downside/instability.
Options flow is leaning defensive (put-heavy volume) and implied volatility is elevated, suggesting traders are pricing higher near-term risk into earnings.
Insider selling has surged (+245.96% over the last month), which is a meaningful near-term negative.
With earnings on 2026-02-11 (after hours) and no proprietary buy signals today, the risk/reward for an impatient entry is unfavorable at current levels.
Technical Analysis
Trend structure (moving averages) is still bullish on a higher timeframe (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but the short-term tape weakened sharply today.
MACD histogram is negative and expanding (-3.737), confirming strengthening bearish momentum in the near term.
RSI_6 at ~30.7 is near oversold, which can produce bounces, but oversold readings during breakdowns can persist.
Key levels: price (~621) is below S1 (628.65) and hovering closer to S2 (613.65). To turn constructive quickly, CW would need to reclaim ~629 first, then the pivot near ~653. Resistance above: ~677 and ~692.
Pattern-based stats provided are not supportive short-term: next week expectation is slightly negative (-1.13%).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning (OI P/C=0.79) is mildly bullish (more calls outstanding than puts), but today’s trading sentiment is bearish/hedging-heavy (volume P/C=2.0).
Implied volatility is high vs realized: IV30 ~40.08 vs HV ~26.53; IV percentile ~88.84 indicates options are expensive and the market is pricing elevated event risk.
Activity spike: today’s option volume vs 30-day average is elevated (6.67x), consistent with pre-earnings positioning/hedging.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
on 2026-02-11 after hours could reset sentiment if results/guidance beat expectations.
Recent tone is mixed-to-cautious overall (multiple Holds), with targets clustering around the low-$600s: Stifel raised to $625 (Hold); Truist raised to $603 (Hold); Citi initiated Neutral at $607.
Bull case on the Street exists but is not dominant: Morgan Stanley remains Overweight with a higher target ($660).
At ~621, CW is already above/near several Hold/Neutral targets (603–625), limiting perceived upside versus consensus; the main upside case relies on the higher-end $660 view and/or an earnings-driven re-rating.
Wall Street pros: strong A&D backdrop and solid execution/growth.
Wall Street cons: valuation/limited upside versus mid-$600 targets and fewer near-term catalysts, especially into an earnings event.
Wall Street analysts forecast CW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CW is 618.8 USD with a low forecast of 584 USD and a high forecast of 660 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CW is 618.8 USD with a low forecast of 584 USD and a high forecast of 660 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 618.600
Low
584
Averages
618.8
High
660
Current: 618.600
Low
584
Averages
618.8
High
660
Stifel
Hold
maintain
$584 -> $625
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
Reason
Stifel
Price Target
$584 -> $625
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
maintain
Hold
Reason
Stifel raised the firm's price target on Curtiss-Wright to $625 from $584 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares as part of the firm's Q4 preview for its diversified industrials coverage.
Truist
Hold
maintain
$537 -> $603
2026-01-09
Reason
Truist
Price Target
$537 -> $603
2026-01-09
maintain
Hold
Reason
Truist raised the firm's price target on Curtiss-Wright to $603 from $537 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Despite a strong 2025, the Aerospace & Defense sector remains broadly bullish for 2026, with rising aircraft production and sustained aftermarket demand supporting both OE and AM segments, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Defense may see fewer catalysts, but recapitalization, geopolitical tensions, and replenishment needs should sustain demand, making stock selection critical amid elevated valuations, particularly for SMID defense tech names, the firm adds.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CW
