Not a good “buy right now” for an impatient entry: longer-term trend is still bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) and Wall Street is leaning negative.
Near-term upside is possible (bullish MACD, call-leaning options flow), but risk/reward is not compelling with elevated implied volatility and an earnings catalyst ahead (2026-02-23, EPS est. -0.84).
Best stance: HOLD/avoid adding here; if already owned, a bounce toward ~$25 looks like the more favorable area to reassess rather than chasing at ~$23.77.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum: MACD histogram +0.329 and expanding (short-term momentum improving), but moving averages remain bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5), implying rallies may still be counter-trend.
RSI(6) 60.85: mildly bullish/neutral—supports a grind higher but not an “oversold snapback” setup.
Volatility/pricing: IV 30D 65.8 vs historical vol 58.5, with IV percentile 93.63 (options very expensive vs the past year).
Activity: Today’s option volume 172 and open interest 20,384; “today vs 30D avg” metrics are very elevated (volume and OI spikes), consistent with positioning ahead of a catalyst (earnings on 2026-02-23).
Takeaway: Options market leans bullish directionally, but elevated IV means buying calls is costly; the market is pricing a big move.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
Balance sheet/capital structure actions: $600M/$400M note pricing and planned $1B senior unsecured notes to refinance/redeem debt—can reduce financing friction and extend maturities.
Hedge-fund activity: “Hedge Funds are Buying,” with buying amount up ~114% QoQ (supportive demand signal).
Technical near-term momentum improving (positive/expanding MACD) with price holding above the pivot (~23.46).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with negative EPS estimate (-0.84), which can cap upside and keep volatility elevated.
Profitability: Net income $374M and EPS 3.72, both showing sharp YoY declines per snapshot (indicates earnings volatility/pressure despite higher revenue).
Margins: Gross margin reported down meaningfully YoY (margin compression), aligning with a more cautious outlook into the next earnings.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets were cut (JPMorgan $22→$21; Scotiabank $26→$25) and both maintain negative ratings (Underweight/Underperform).
Wall Street pros: recognizes potential for operational/market normalization and the company’s ability to refinance/optimize capital structure.
Wall Street cons: expects weaker relative performance (explicit negative ratings), and the lowered targets suggest limited confidence in near-term upside from current levels.
Wall Street analysts forecast CVI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVI is 28.5 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 35 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CVI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVI is 28.5 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 35 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
1 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 23.600
Low
25
Averages
28.5
High
35
Current: 23.600
Low
25
Averages
28.5
High
35
JPMorgan
Underweight
downgrade
$22 -> $21
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$22 -> $21
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
downgrade
Underweight
Reason
JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on CVR Energy to $21 from $22 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The analyst updated the company's model post earnings.
Scotiabank
Underperform
downgrade
$26 -> $25
2026-01-16
Reason
Scotiabank
Price Target
$26 -> $25
2026-01-16
downgrade
Underperform
Reason
Scotiabank lowered the firm's price target on CVR Energy to $25 from $26 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for U.S. Integrated Oil, Refining, and Large Cap Exploration & Production, E&P, stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. Scotiabank expects earnings for the quarter to be straightforward due to the absence of major winter weather disruptions. Additionally, looking ahead, the firm expects investors to focus on whether recent market turmoil will cause changes to 2026 guidance and if any E&P companies will adopt cost reduction programs.
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