Should I Buy CVGW? CVGW 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Calavo Growers Inc (CVGW) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

25.430

1 Day change

-0.27%

52 Week Range

28.720

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: upside appears capped near the deal value (~$27) while deal-break downside looks meaningfully larger given weak underlying fundamentals.
This is primarily a merger-arbitrage situation, not a momentum/quality growth setup; without a clear timing edge, risk/reward is not compelling.
Intellectia signals are not supporting an aggressive entry today: AI Stock Picker = no signal; SwingMax = no recent signal.
Hedge funds have been accumulating (supports a floor), but options positioning and technicals lean cautious/late-stage.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram (-0.0357) is below zero and negatively expanding → bearish momentum building.
RSI(6) at 68.46 → near overbought/extended short-term; not an attractive “buy-now” timing signal.
Moving averages are converging → indecision/transition phase rather than a clean uptrend.
Key levels: Pivot 25.678 (price 25.66 is sitting right at pivot). Near resistance R1 26.948 then R2 27.733; support S1 24.408 then S2 23.623.
Pattern-based forward odds provided: modest expected moves (next day +1.63% probability 50%), implying limited near-term edge.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put open interest 1325 vs call open interest 469 → OI put/call = 2.83, a defensive/bearish skew (often hedging into event risk).
Flow today: call volume 50 and put volume 0 → volume put/call = 0.0 (thin tape; not strong sentiment confirmation).
Volatility: IV 30d ~40.83 vs HV ~41.64 (roughly aligned). IV percentile 4 and IV rank 8.66 → options are relatively cheap vs recent history, consistent with post-event volatility crush expectations.
Activity vs averages: today’s option volume is ~24x the 30-day average, and open interest is elevated (deal-related positioning likely).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- M&A catalyst: agreement for Mission Produce to acquire Calavo (news cites ~$27 per share / cash+stock structure) can support price anchoring and limit upside/downside within the spread while the deal is perceived as likely.
- Hedge fund accumulation: buying increased ~302% last quarter, suggesting institutional interest around the transaction.
- Analyst view: Stephens calls the deal a “logical outcome” with potential to stabilize earnings longer term via integration synergies.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Deal risk: current price below the implied deal value indicates market-implied uncertainty (timing, regulatory, shareholder approval, or terms risk).
- Technicals are not supportive: MACD weakening and RSI near overbought reduces attractiveness of chasing at current levels.
- Multiple law-firm investigation headlines around the sale process can add noise and uncertainty (even if often routine).
- Underlying business weakness (Fresh segment pressure noted by analyst) increases downside risk if the deal is delayed or fails.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $124.681M, down -26.64% YoY → sharp top-line contraction.
Profitability: Net income $3.817M, down -2846.04% YoY; EPS $0.21, down -2200% YoY → severe earnings deterioration.
Margins: Gross margin 9.34%, down -2.51% YoY → continued compression.
Overall: fundamentals are trending down materially, making the standalone valuation support weaker if the acquisition does not close as expected.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Most recent update (2026-01-22): Stephens lowered price target to $27 from $28; rating maintained at Equal Weight.
Implication: Wall Street view is effectively “fair value near the deal,” not a high-conviction upside call.
Pros (Street view): strategic fit with Mission Produce and potential stabilization via synergies.
Cons (Street view): Q4 was slightly below expectations due to weaker Fresh pricing/volume; core operating momentum is mixed and heavily deal-dependent.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CVGW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVGW is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 25.500

Low

Averages

High

Current: 25.500

Low

Averages

High

Stephens

Equal Weight

maintain

$28 -> $27

AI Analysis

2026-01-22

Reason

Stephens

Price Target

$28 -> $27

AI Analysis

2026-01-22

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Stephens lowered the firm's price target on Calavo Growers to $27 from $28 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Q4 results were slightly below the firm's estimates as weaker Fresh pricing and volume more than offset strong momentum in Prepared, says the analyst, who adds that the quarter was "overshadowed" by the announced agreement for Mission Produce to acquire Calavo. The firm views this as "a logical outcome" given the strategic fit and one that should help stabilize the earnings profile over time as integration synergies are pursued.

Stephens

Pooran Sharma

Equal Weight

initiated

$28

2025-09-11

Reason

Stephens

Pooran Sharma

Price Target

$28

2025-09-11

initiated

Equal Weight

Reason

Stephens analyst Pooran Sharma resumed coverage of Calavo Growers with an Equal Weight rating and $28 price target. Calavo remains highly exposed to avocado commodity pricing, which has seen near-term pressure due to elevated Peruvian supply, so the firm recommends waiting on the sidelines until pricing stabilizes and earnings visibility improves.

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CVGW Should I Buy

CVGW Should I Buy

Should You Buy Calavo Growers Inc (CVGW) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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