Should I Buy CSW? CSW 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy CSW Industrials Inc (CSW) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

290.250

1 Day change

5.52%

52 Week Range

337.020

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: the stock is bouncing (+6.87%) but the bigger picture is still a post-earnings reset with weakening underlying (third straight quarter of negative organic growth cited by analysts).
The current setup looks more like a short-term oversold rebound attempt than the start of a clean new uptrend; upside is likely capped until price reclaims the ~295 pivot area.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
No supportive “smart money” confirmation: hedge fund and insider activity are neutral; no recent Congress trading data.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-7.681) but contracting, suggesting downside momentum is easing (potential rebound), not that a new uptrend is confirmed.
RSI (6): 30.46, near oversold/washed-out conditions—consistent with a bounce, but not a standalone buy signal.
Moving averages: converging MAs imply consolidation/transition rather than a strong directional trend.
Key levels: price (~273) is above S1 (264.6) but well below pivot resistance (295.3). A failure to hold 264.6 would re-open downside toward S2 (245.6); a reclaim of 295 improves the technical picture meaningfully.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment skew: low put/call OI ratio (0.32) and zero put volume today indicates call-heavy positioning (bullish tilt).
Volatility: 30D IV 39.48 vs historical vol 32.04 and IV percentile 81.58 = elevated implied vol, implying the market is pricing higher uncertainty/risk around the name.
Activity: today’s option volume (23) is ~37x the 30-day average, signaling heightened attention, but in a high-IV regime (more “event/uncertainty” than calm accumulation).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Technical: near-oversold readings + MACD contraction can fuel a short-term relief rally.
- Revenue: Q3 FY2026 revenue reached ~233M and was up ~20% YoY (acquisition-driven), supporting the top-line narrative.
- Potential synergy upside: analysts note additional MARS synergy line-of-sight as a constructive longer-term driver.
- Options positioning is call-skewed (bullish sentiment) based on put/call ratios.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings quality: Q3 FY2026 featured a sizable EPS miss (Non-GAAP EPS reported at 1.42, missing expectations by 0.45 per the news summary) and a sharp profitability decline.
- Fundamental deterioration: net income -61.9% YoY, EPS -61.3% YoY, and gross margin down ~4.1% YoY.
- Business weakness: continued weakness in Contractor Solutions and “messy” quarter commentary (residential HVAC/R noise & M&A impacts) reduces near-term confidence.
- Wall Street stance: multiple Neutral/Hold/Equal Weight ratings and lowered targets suggest limited conviction for immediate upside.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q3.
Growth: revenue 232,992,000 (+20.32% YoY), primarily supported by acquisitions (per news).
Profitability: net income 10,261,000 (-61.92% YoY) and EPS 0.62 (-61.25% YoY)—material deterioration vs last year.
Margins: gross margin 39.68% (down ~4.09% YoY), indicating cost/mix pressure and weaker earnings quality despite higher revenue.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: ratings remain broadly neutral (Hold/Neutral/Equal Weight), with price targets mostly cut after the Q3 miss.
2026-02-02 Truist: PT raised to $292 from $271 but kept Hold; wants more certainty the worst is past after 3 straight quarters of negative organic growth.
2026-02-02 Wells Fargo: PT lowered to $280 from $300, Equal Weight; sees synergy potential but questions recovery timing and valuation.
2026-01-30 Citi: PT lowered to $307 from $333, Neutral.
Wall Street pros: synergy potential and possible category recovery.
Wall Street cons: messy quarter, organic growth weakness, and profitability compression; overall “wait-and-see” posture.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CSW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CSW is 311.2 USD with a low forecast of 271 USD and a high forecast of 350 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

4 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 275.070

Low

271

Averages

311.2

High

350

Current: 275.070

Low

271

Averages

311.2

High

350

Truist

Hold

maintain

$271 -> $292

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$271 -> $292

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

maintain

Hold

Reason

Truist raised the firm's price target on CSW Industrials to $292 from $271 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The stock fell after the company missed consensus sales and adjusted EBITDA, driven by continued weakness in Contractor Solutions, marking the third consecutive quarter of negative organic growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm adds that it will look to get more constructive given pull back in the name, although it needs more certainty the worst is in the past.

Wells Fargo

Equal Weight

downgrade

$300 -> $280

2026-02-02

Reason

Wells Fargo

Price Target

$300 -> $280

2026-02-02

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on CSW Industrials to $280 from $300 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm says that admittedly, Q3 was a miss and "a little messy," with noise from residential HVAC/R & M&A contributing factors. Line of site to additional MARS synergies screens positive, although category recovery timing and valuation keep Wells sidelined.

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CSW Should I Buy

CSW Should I Buy

Should You Buy CSW Industrials Inc (CSW) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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