Should I Buy CSTM? CSTM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Constellium SE (CSTM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

24.740

1 Day change

5.95%

52 Week Range

25.150

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Buy now (pre-market ~24.3): Trend is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 + MACD expanding), and fundamentals recently re-accelerated, which supports continued upside.
Near-term path: Price is above the pivot (23.445) and is working toward R1 (24.668) and R2 (25.423); a push through R1 would likely invite momentum buying.
What to watch immediately: Options are pricing a big move (very high IV) and put activity is extreme, so the stock can move fast—this is more consistent with an “act now” setup than waiting for an ideal dip.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish alignment with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating an established uptrend across short/medium/long timeframes.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.0362 and expanding → bullish momentum strengthening.
RSI: RSI_6 = 70.724 → near overbought; not a reversal signal by itself, but suggests upside may be choppy near resistance.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 23.445 (bullish while above)
- Resistance: 24.668 (R1) then 25.423 (R2)
- Support: 22.223 (S1) then 21.468 (S2)
Pattern-based forward odds (provided): ~40% chance of +1.18% next day, +1.68% next week, +10.5% next month (skewed positive over 1 month).

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment (OI): Put/Call OI = 1.07 → slightly more puts outstanding than calls (mildly bearish/hedged stance).
Sentiment (flow/volume): Put/Call Volume = 27.57 with put volume 2564 vs call volume 93 → extremely put-heavy trading today (often protective hedging or speculative downside positioning).
Activity spike: Options volume is ~303% of 30-day average, and total OI is elevated (today vs OI avg ~132%) → traders are actively positioning now.
Volatility: 30D IV 70.94 vs HV 35.89 and IV percentile 89.64 → options are pricing a large move, consistent with an event-driven period (earnings upcoming).
Implication: Technicals are bullish, but options positioning suggests the market is demanding downside protection into the next catalyst—expect bigger swings.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-18 (pre-market); elevated IV indicates the market expects a meaningful move.
- Institutional behavior: Hedge funds are buying (buying amount up 128.16% QoQ), supportive for demand.
- Technical tailwind: Bullish moving-average stack + expanding MACD supports continuation.
- Analyst target move: Deutsche Bank raised PT to $25 from $22 (even while keeping Hold), signaling improving expectations on value/upside.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Options flow is strongly defensive/bearish: Extremely high put volume relative to calls can signal near-term caution/hedging and can pressure price if dealers hedge.
- Overbought risk near resistance: RSI near 70 and price approaching R1 (24.668) can lead to short-term pullbacks even within an uptrend.
- No supportive news flow this week: No fresh positive headlines; price action may be driven mainly by positioning and the earnings setup.
- Analyst stance still cautious: The latest update is a Hold rating (not a conviction Buy call).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $2.166B, +20.20% YoY → solid top-line acceleration.
Profitability inflection: Net income $88M, +1157.14% YoY → major earnings rebound.
EPS: $0.63, +1160% YoY → strong operating leverage / margin improvement impact.
Gross margin: 10.62%, +48.32% YoY → improving pricing/mix/cost dynamics.
Read-through: Financial trend is decisively improving, which supports the bullish technical backdrop going into the next earnings date.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Most recent analyst action (2026-01-08): Deutsche Bank raised price target to $25 from $22 and maintained Hold.
Trend summary: Target moved up, rating unchanged (Hold) → improving outlook, but not strong enough for a formal Buy.
Wall Street pros (implied by the data): Better earnings power and improving fundamentals (PT increase aligns with that).
Wall Street cons (implied by the data): Continued Hold suggests valuation, cyclicality, or visibility concerns still limit conviction.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CSTM stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CSTM is 22.33 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 23.350

Low

Averages

22.33

High

Current: 23.350

Low

Averages

22.33

High

Deutsche Bank

Hold

maintain

$22 -> $25

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

Reason