Should I Buy CSTL? CSTL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Castle Biosciences Inc (CSTL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

32.750

1 Day change

1.08%

52 Week Range

44.280

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now: price is in a sharp downswing (down ~6.96% today) with bearish momentum still expanding.
Oversold (RSI-6 ~19.5) increases the odds of a short-term bounce, but there is no Intellectia buy signal today and downside pressure remains.
Insider selling has accelerated (+263% last month), which weakens the “buy-the-dip” case despite bullish Wall Street targets.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bearish. MACD histogram -0.52 and negatively expanding signals weakening price trend and increasing downside momentum.
RSI: RSI_6 at 19.486 = deeply oversold; bounce risk is rising, but oversold can persist in strong downtrends.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggests indecision, but current momentum favors bears.
Key levels: Price 36.275 is below S1 (37.553) and hovering just above S2 (35.761). A break below ~35.76 would be a clear technical deterioration; reclaiming pivot ~40.45 would improve the setup.
Pattern-based odds (similar candlesticks): modest near-term lift probabilities (+0.75% next day, +1.07% next week) but stronger 1-month rebound odds (+6.44%)—suggesting “bounce potential,” not a clean buy signal today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Open interest put/call ratio 0.3 = call-heavy positioning (bullish skew).
Flow: Put volume is 0 with call volume 99; volume is ~56.6% of 30-day average (not a major surge).
Volatility: 30D IV ~70.75 vs historical vol ~36.02 (elevated implied vol), suggesting the market is pricing meaningful near-term uncertainty.
Read-through: Options sentiment leans bullish (calls favored), but elevated IV implies traders expect big moves; this does not override the bearish spot trend today.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Wall Street sentiment remains constructive: multiple recent price target increases with Buy/Overweight ratings.
- Deeply oversold RSI increases probability of a reflex bounce.
- Options positioning is call-skewed (put/call OI 0.3; put volume 0).
- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 results on 2026-03-04 after hours could act as a catalyst if results/guide surprise positively.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Strong near-term technical damage: sharp down day and MACD momentum still worsening.
- Insiders are selling; selling amount up ~263% over the last month (bearish signal).
- Latest reported quarter showed weakening fundamentals (revenue down YoY, margins down, losses widened).
- News items provided appear unrelated to CSTL (largely about Lumen), so there is no clear supportive, stock-specific news catalyst in the dataset.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 83.043M, down -3.19% YoY (growth slowing/negative).
Profitability: Net income -0.501M (down -122.08% YoY) and EPS -0.02 (down -125% YoY), indicating losses widened versus prior year.
Margins: Gross margin 74.74%, down -5.58% YoY (deteriorating efficiency/pricing mix).
Overall: The quarter reflects decelerating growth and margin pressure, which supports caution when buying into a falling chart.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Consistent upgrades in price targets with bullish ratings maintained.
KeyBanc (2026-01-29): PT raised to $50 from $36, reiterated Overweight.
Guggenheim (2026-01-26): PT raised to $47 from $43, reiterated Buy; (2026-01-05) PT raised to $43 from $30, reiterated Buy.
Canaccord (2025-12-22): PT raised to $50 from $37, reiterated Buy; cited high conviction into 2026.
BTIG (2025-12-12): PT raised to $50 from $38, reiterated Buy; positive on risk/reward and financial profile.
Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros—broad Buy/Overweight consensus and higher targets imply perceived upside from current levels. Cons—targets are forward-looking, but the current tape is bearish and insider selling + weakening recent quarter fundamentals undermine timing for an “impatient” entry today.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CSTL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CSTL is 47.2 USD with a low forecast of 41 USD and a high forecast of 52 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 32.400

Low

Averages

47.2

High

Current: 32.400

Low

Averages

47.2

High

KeyBanc

Paul Knight

maintain

$36 -> $50

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

Reason

KeyBanc

Paul Knight

Price Target

$36 -> $50

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

maintain

Reason

KeyBanc analyst Paul Knight raised the firm's price target on Castle Biosciences to $50 from $36 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.

Guggenheim

Subbu Nambi

maintain

$43 -> $47

2026-01-26

Reason

Guggenheim

Subbu Nambi

Price Target

$43 -> $47

2026-01-26

maintain

Reason

Guggenheim analyst Subbu Nambi raised the firm's price target on Castle Biosciences to $47 from $43 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm adjusted models, forecasts and targets for a number of its Diagnostics and Life Sciences Tools covered companies to reflect recent updates and selected pre-announcements of preliminary results last week.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CSTL

Unlock Now

CSTL Should I Buy

CSTL Should I Buy

Should You Buy Castle Biosciences Inc (CSTL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch