Not a good buy right now: CSL just surged ~9.7% today (plus strong pre-market) and is technically stretched (RSI_6 ~84 overbought) right after earnings.
Price is above the prior key resistance (R2 ~390.54) at ~391.62, which can be bullish, but the move is extended and vulnerable to a near-term pullback.
Options positioning is heavily put-skewed (very high put/call ratios) with elevated implied volatility, signaling caution/hedging rather than clean bullish conviction.
With no Intellectia buy signals today and mixed fundamentals (revenue slightly up but profits/margins down YoY), the risk/reward for an impatient entry is unfavorable today.
Technical Analysis
Trend/price action: Big upside breakout day; price (391.62) is above R2 (390.54), which confirms strength but also suggests a near-term "overextension" risk.
Momentum: MACD histogram +1.152 and expanding (bullish momentum).
Overbought: RSI_6 at ~84.44 indicates overbought conditions—often precedes consolidation or a pullback after a sharp earnings move.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggests the stock had been basing/transitioning; today’s jump is a momentum shock rather than a gradual trend.
Levels: Pivot ~358.18 (near-term reference), prior resistance R1 ~378.18 now below price; support zones to watch if it fades: ~378 then ~358.
Probabilistic trend (pattern analogs): 60% chance of -0.82% next day; +1.64% next week; +9.94% next month (near-term chop risk despite constructive 1-month bias).
Positioning: Put open interest (3515) far exceeds call open interest (758) → strong put-skew (defensive/hedged sentiment).
Flow: Put volume dominates (put/call volume ratio 12.35) with today’s volume ~141% of 30-day average → heightened event-driven hedging/concern post-earnings.
Volatility: 30D IV ~35.98 vs historical vol ~30.66; IV percentile ~92 → options are expensive and pricing larger moves than usual, consistent with uncertainty after results.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
12
Positive Catalysts
can attract momentum buyers if it holds above that level for multiple sessions.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Profitability deterioration: Q4 net income down materially YoY amid rising costs; margin pressure is a clear negative in the print.
2026-01-19: RBC Capital upgraded to Outperform (bullish tilt) with a stated price target increase (notably, the provided target value appears inconsistent versus the current ~$391 price, implying the target data may be stale/mismatched currency).
2026-01-30: William Blair initiated at Market Perform (neutral), citing fair valuation and competition/demand visibility concerns.
Wall Street pros: Leadership in commercial roofing; upgrade commentary suggests opportunity after prior selloff.
Wall Street cons: Valuation viewed as fair after the move; competition fears and limited demand visibility; recent quarter showed margin/profit decline despite modest revenue growth.
Influential buying/selling check: Hedge funds neutral; insiders neutral; no recent Congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast CSL stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CSL is 385.33 USD with a low forecast of 356 USD and a high forecast of 400 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CSL stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CSL is 385.33 USD with a low forecast of 356 USD and a high forecast of 400 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 401.010
Low
356
Averages
385.33
High
400
Current: 401.010
Low
356
Averages
385.33
High
400
Baird
NULL -> Outperform
maintain
$396 -> $420
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
Reason
Baird
Price Target
$396 -> $420
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
maintain
NULL -> Outperform
Reason
Baird raised the firm's price target on Carlisle to $420 from $396 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following better Q4 results and inline otlook.
William Blair
Ryan Merkel
Market Perform
initiated
2026-01-30
Reason
William Blair
Ryan Merkel
Price Target
2026-01-30
initiated
Market Perform
Reason
William Blair analyst Ryan Merkel initiated coverage of Carlisle with a Market Perform rating and no price target. CSL is the leader in the "attractive" commercial roofing industry, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the firm believes the hares are fairly valued given rising competition fears and limited demand visibility.
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