Should I Buy CSIQ? CSIQ 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Canadian Solar Inc (CSIQ) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

19.890

1 Day change

4.79%

52 Week Range

34.590

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: price action is neutral-to-choppy (RSI ~~51, MACD still below zero) and the stock is sitting below the key pivot (~~21.02), which is near-term overhead resistance.
Options positioning is bullish (very low put/call ratios), but today’s options volume is far below recent averages—so sentiment is positive, yet not showing a strong “crowded momentum” push today.
With mixed Wall Street views and unresolved policy/FEOC overhang, upside exists but the setup is not a high-conviction entry at 20.45; better to hold rather than chase.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0519 (below 0) but negatively contracting → downside momentum is easing, not a clear reversal yet.
RSI(6) 51.5 → neutral; no oversold bounce signal.
Moving averages: converging → consolidation/indecision rather than a clean trend.
Key levels: Support S1 ~19.12 (then S2 ~17.95); Resistance at Pivot ~21.02, then R1 ~22.93.
Practical read: as long as CSIQ is below ~21, rallies can stall; a breakdown below ~19.1 would worsen the technical picture.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/Positioning: Put/Call is very low on both OI (0.34) and volume (0.12) → options market is positioned bullishly (call-heavy).
Activity: Today volume 3,764 vs 5D avg ~15,698 and 10D avg ~19,472 → participation is muted vs recent norms.
Volatility: IV30 ~91 with IV percentile ~78.9 → options are pricing large moves; this can amplify both gains and drawdowns.
OI: Calls OI 132,573 vs Puts OI 45,602 → call-side dominance supports a bullish skew.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Strategic structure: JV plans for U.S. solar PV + U.S. energy storage (with controlling stake) could help maintain access/compliance amid potential FEOC restrictions (a key bullish narrative from Daiwa).
- Sector tailwind possibility: UBS highlights China policy potentially curbing oversupply, which could support module pricing/market share.
- Operational bright spot: 2025/Q3 gross margin increased to 17.23% (+5.0% YoY), indicating some profitability improvement at the gross level.
- Storage growth narrative remains a core bull case across several notes (big price target raises tied to ESS opportunity).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Policy/regulatory risk: FEOC compliance uncertainty remains a major overhang (explicitly cited by multiple analysts).
- Fundamentals: 2025/Q3 net income and EPS fell sharply YoY (net income down -164.07%, EPS down -161.90%), showing earnings power is currently weak.
- Wall Street split: notable bearish ratings remain (Goldman Sell; JPM Underweight; Mizuho Underperform) despite some big PT raises—signals disagreement and elevated headline risk.
- News tape risk for solar: recent headlines around Tesla’s solar ambitions increased competitive discussion across the space (even if focused on FSLR, it can pressure sentiment for solar names broadly).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: 1.487B, down -1.34% YoY → slight contraction.
Profitability: Net income 9.0M, down -164.07% YoY; EPS 0.13, down -161.90% YoY → earnings deterioration is the main concern.
Margin: Gross margin 17.23%, up +5.00% YoY → some operational improvement, but not yet translating into stronger bottom-line results.
Ownership/trading signals: Hedge funds neutral; insiders neutral (no notable accumulation signals).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Large price target hikes after Q3/strategy updates (UBS to $37, Daiwa to $30, Roth to $30), reflecting renewed optimism around U.S. ESS + potential supply discipline.
But ratings are mixed: UBS Buy vs Daiwa Outperform, while Mizuho moved to Underperform (PT $21) citing rally “overdone” and FEOC uncertainty; Goldman stays Sell (PT $17) and JPM stays Underweight (PT $10).
Wall Street bull view: CSIQ is a preferred way to play U.S. energy storage growth and potential improvement in industry supply/pricing.
Wall Street bear view: policy/FEOC compliance risk + weak earnings trajectory outweigh near-term optimism, making the stock hard to underwrite after big rallies.

9 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CSIQ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CSIQ is 20.14 USD with a low forecast of 5.58 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

2 Hold

5 Sell

Moderate Sell

Current: 18.980

Low

5.58

Averages

20.14

High

Current: 18.980

Low

5.58

Averages

20.14

High

Daiwa

Neutral -> Outperform

upgrade

$13 -> $30

AI Analysis

2025-12-02

Reason

Daiwa

Price Target

$13 -> $30

AI Analysis

2025-12-02

upgrade

Neutral -> Outperform

Reason

Daiwa upgraded Canadian Solar to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $30, up from $13, after the company announced plans to establish two new Joint Ventures to run the U.S. solar PV business and the U.S. energy storage business with a controlling 75.1% stake. Daiwa thinks this move will enable Canadian Solar to remain compliant with potential U.S. foreign entity of concern requirements for solar and ESS imports, calling the stock the firm's "preferred China player in the promising US ESS market."

Mizuho

Outperform -> Underperform

downgrade

$15 -> $21

2025-11-19

Reason

Mizuho

Price Target

$15 -> $21

2025-11-19

downgrade

Outperform -> Underperform

Reason

Mizuho double downgraded Canadian Solar to Underperform from Outperform with a price target of $21, up from $15. The stock's recent rally reflects a higher growth multiple for Canadian Solar's battery storage business and solar multiple expansion, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the firm says the impact of U.S. factory resolution remains uncertain. Mizuho points out the stock has rallied 108% in the last three months, outperforming peers, due to expectations for battery storage demand to meet load growth and solar multiples bottoming out. "This seems overdone," the firm contends. It believes Canadian Solar's U.S. expansion remains on track, but adds that its Foreign Entity of Concern compliance is still pending.

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CSIQ Should I Buy

CSIQ Should I Buy

Should You Buy Canadian Solar Inc (CSIQ) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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