Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the trend is decisively bearish (price below key support, bearish moving averages, negative/expanding MACD).
Oversold RSI can spark a short bounce, but momentum is still deteriorating and the next clear support sits near ~$49, so downside risk remains immediate.
Options positioning is bullish (calls dominate), but implied volatility is extremely elevated into earnings (2/17), making sentiment/event-risk high rather than “clean” accumulation.
Net: Avoid buying today; if already holding, this is not an attractive add point until price reclaims broken support and momentum stabilizes.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bearish. SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 confirms a sustained downtrend; MACD histogram at -1.144 and negatively expanding signals worsening downside momentum.
RSI: RSI_6 = 16.853 (deeply oversold). This increases odds of a reflex bounce, but oversold alone is not a reversal signal when MACD is still expanding lower.
Levels: Price 52.05 is below S1 (53.623), implying former support has failed; next support is S2 ~48.995. Major pivot resistance sits far above at ~61.114.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern projection shows near-term weakness (next day expected bias negative; next week slightly negative) with a better 1-month rebound probability—suggesting “later” mean reversion rather than “now” trend reversal.
Volatility: IV_30d ~59.11 with IV percentile 98.8 (extremely elevated vs its own history) → market is pricing large moves; event risk is high.
Flow/Activity: Today’s volume ~80 vs 30D average ratio ~0.95 (not a huge spike), but open interest appears elevated vs average (today_vs_open_interest_avg_30_day 112.35), suggesting positioning is built up.
Takeaway: Options are optimistic, but the very high IV implies uncertainty and makes the tape more headline/earnings-sensitive than technically “stable.”
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
Activist pressure is intensifying (Third Point letter; D.E. Shaw pushing for board changes), which can force governance/strategy shifts and potentially unlock value.
Prior company update included a large share repurchase authorization (noted in analyst commentary), which can support the stock if executed.
Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-17 (after hours) could reset sentiment if Homes.com losses narrow faster than feared or if 2026 outlook is clarified.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Fundamental profitability pressure: Homes.com investment has weighed on earnings and margins; market remains sensitive to perceived margin contraction.
Profitability: Net income -$30.9M (down -158.30% YoY) and EPS -$0.07 (down -153.85% YoY) → losses widened despite revenue growth.
Margins: Gross margin 75.53%, down ~3.43% YoY → profitability quality deteriorated versus last year (consistent with heavier investment cycle).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Broad price target cuts in early January (BMO, Wells Fargo, Deutsche Bank, Citizens, BofA) reflecting concerns around long-term profitability/margin trajectory and Homes.com investment path.
Notable reversal: BTIG upgraded to Buy (1/27) with an $80 target, arguing expectations are low, investment is past peak, Homes.com momentum is improving, and an AI-driven product update could resonate.
Bear case on the Street: Wells Fargo stays Underweight and cut target to $48 (2/4), citing sector AI concerns and skepticism.
Cons: profit/margin compression risk, guidance skepticism, heavy investment overhang, and current price action/technicals remain firmly bearish.
Wall Street analysts forecast CSGP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CSGP is 78.6 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 100 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CSGP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CSGP is 78.6 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 100 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 50.990
Low
55
Averages
78.6
High
100
Current: 50.990
Low
55
Averages
78.6
High
100
Wells Fargo
Underweight
downgrade
$55 -> $48
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$55 -> $48
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
downgrade
Underweight
Reason
Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on CoStar Group (CSGP) to $48 from $55 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm notes info services sold off on AI concerns following Gartner's (IT) Q4 earnings and Anthropic entering legal workflows. Wells believes many of the stock moves are unwarranted and sees compelling buying opportunities in info services companies with proprietary data.
BTIG
Jake Fuller
Neutral
to
Buy
upgrade
$80
2026-01-27
Reason
BTIG
Jake Fuller
Price Target
$80
2026-01-27
upgrade
Neutral
to
Buy
Reason
BTIG analyst Jake Fuller upgraded CoStar Group to Buy from Neutral with an $80 price target.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CSGP
