Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the chart momentum is still bearish (negative/expanding MACD) and heavy recent insider selling is a major red flag.
Options sentiment is bullish (very low put/call ratios), but implied volatility is extremely elevated into earnings—this looks more like a high-expectations event setup than a clean upside entry.
If you already own it, holding into earnings is a coin-flip with a bullish options skew; for a new position today, the risk/reward is not compelling enough versus nearby resistance (pivot ~11.36) and limited Street upside (PT ~$11).
Trend/Momentum: Bearish near-term momentum—MACD histogram is -0.18 and negatively expanding, signaling downside pressure is still building.
RSI: RSI(6) ~29.1 suggests the stock is near short-term oversold conditions (bounce potential), but oversold alone is not a buy trigger while MACD is worsening.
Moving averages: Converging MAs imply indecision/transition rather than a confirmed uptrend.
Levels: Price (10.63) is just above S1 (10.41); a break below increases downside risk toward S2 (9.83). Upside must reclaim the pivot (11.36) to improve the technical picture; R1 ~12.32.
Pattern-based stats: Similar-pattern analysis implies mild upside over 1 week/month (+1.2% / +4.05%), but next-day expectation is slightly negative (-0.41%), consistent with choppy pre-earnings trade.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put/call ratios are very low (OI 0.42; Volume 0.2) = bullish positioning/skew toward calls.
Volatility: IV30 ~116% vs HV ~84.5% with IV percentile 76 → options are pricing a large move (expensive premiums).
Activity: Today’s volume (1075) is below 30D average (80.8% of avg), but open interest is healthy (total OI ~58,987) and slightly above its average (105.7% of avg).
Takeaway: Market is leaning bullish, but the elevated IV suggests a lot of good news is already priced in heading into earnings.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
Earnings catalyst: Q1 earnings scheduled 2026-02-04 after hours; consensus EPS $0.31 and revenue ~$114.5M imply very strong YoY growth off an easy comp.
Estimate momentum: Last 3 months show more upward than downward revisions (EPS: 2 up/1 down; Revenue: 4 up/0 down) = improving expectations.
Execution track record: Over the past two years, CRNC has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue 100% of the time.
Positioning/flow: Hedge funds are buying (reported buying amount +348% QoQ), supporting a constructive medium-term sponsorship narrative.
is close to the current price (~$10.63), suggesting limited “easy” upside if results are merely in-line.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $60.64M, up +10.65% YoY (top-line growth improving).
Profitability: Net income -$13.36M (more negative, -34.56% YoY) and EPS -0.31 (-36.73% YoY) → losses widened despite revenue growth.
Margins: Gross margin 72.55% (+15.78% YoY) → operating leverage has not yet translated into bottom-line profitability in the provided quarter.
Growth read-through: Strong margin expansion is encouraging, but the earnings/loss trend needs to inflect for a durable re-rate.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Latest noted action (2025-11-20): Goldman Sachs raised PT to $11 from $10 and maintained a Neutral rating.
Rating/target trend: Modestly improving target, but still Neutral—signals cautious optimism without conviction.
Wall Street pro view (pros): Solid quarter execution, FY26 guidance boosted by legal settlement, constructive signs in pricing per unit and expected ~8% FY26 core growth.
Wall Street con view (cons): Backlog and penetration rates remain flat; Street wants clearer proof of sustained core-business acceleration (e.g., new xUI wins).
Influential buyers/sellers: No recent Congress trading data available (no politician activity to confirm or contradict the setup).
Wall Street analysts forecast CRNC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CRNC is 10.5 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 11 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CRNC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CRNC is 10.5 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 11 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 7.650
Low
10
Averages
10.5
High
11
Current: 7.650
Low
10
Averages
10.5
High
11
TD Cowen
Hold
downgrade
$13 -> $12
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
$13 -> $12
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
downgrade
Hold
Reason
TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on Cerence to $12 from $13 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm said a noisy financial outcome as the sizable FQ1 EBITDA beat and confirmed FY'26 guide imply a rest-of-year EBITDA shortfall versus consensus.
Goldman Sachs
Neutral
maintain
$10 -> $11
2025-11-20
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$10 -> $11
2025-11-20
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Cerence to $11 from $10 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Cerence posted a solid quarter, beating revenue and EBITDA expectations and issuing FY26 guidance boosted by a sizable legal settlement, while core metrics like pricing per unit and expected 8% FY26 core growth showed constructive traction, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Backlog and penetration rates remain flat, and Goldman says it wants to see clearer evidence of sustained core-business acceleration, potentially via new xUI wins.
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