Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: momentum is still pointing down (bearish MACD expansion) and price is sitting below/around near-term support (~13.21) in pre-market.
The setup is more “high-volatility headline trade” than clean technical entry; odds skew only mildly positive beyond 1 week based on the provided pattern stats.
If you must act today, the higher-probability approach is to wait for strength (reclaiming and holding above ~13.21 then pushing toward the pivot ~16.80) rather than buying into weakening momentum.
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.7 and “negatively expanding” → bearish momentum is strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6) 38.6 → not oversold enough to be a clear mean-reversion buy; still weak/soft demand.
Moving averages: Converging MAs → market is undecided, but current momentum readings lean bearish.
Key levels:
Support: S1 ~13.21 (price ~13.06 pre-market is slightly below), then S2 ~11.00.
Resistance: Pivot ~16.80, then R1 ~20.39.
Near-term probability (pattern-based): 60% chance of -0.33% next day, +0.82% next week, +1.5% next month → near-term chop/down bias before modest recovery odds.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Very low put/call (OI 0.37; volume 0.33) → options market is call-heavy/bullish, consistent with speculative upside interest.
Activity: Today’s option volume 36,748 vs 30D avg (today vs avg shown as 60.29) → elevated attention; open interest also elevated (today vs OI avg 139.27).
Volatility: IV30 140% vs HV 189%; IV percentile 35 / IV rank 21 → volatility is high in absolute terms but not at extremes versus its own history (still a speculative, wide-range tape).
Takeaway: Options flow is bullish, but that doesn’t override the currently bearish price momentum; it often aligns with “headline spikes” rather than steady trend.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
and Tanbreez rare-earth project progress (analyst cites potential ~100k metric tons annual concentrate in Phase 1).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical deterioration (bearish MACD expansion) increases the chance of further downside/failed bounces.
Price is trading below/near key support (~13.21); a clean break can open downside toward ~11.00.
Extremely high volatility profile (triple-digit IV) implies sharp swings; bull positioning can unwind quickly if headlines cool.
Recent large run-up increases risk of profit-taking and “sell-the-news” reactions on incremental updates.
Financial Performance
Latest provided quarter: 2023/Q3.
Financial profile remains pre/near-zero revenue (Revenue: 0) with ongoing losses (Net income -170,007, EPS -0.02).
Growth quality is not yet demonstrated in operating results (no meaningful revenue base); the thesis is primarily project execution / strategic funding / policy tailwinds rather than current earnings power.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent sell-side action (2026-01-20): Clear Street reiterated Buy and raised price target to $20 from $14.
Rationale: Saudi JV term sheet + expectations for Phase 1 Tanbreez production scale.
Wall Street pros: clear strategic narrative (rare earth supply chain), potential scale-up pathway, and supportive geopolitical/policy backdrop.
Wall Street cons: execution risk (project development), limited current financial fundamentals (pre-revenue/loss-making), and high volatility that can overwhelm fundamentals short-term.
Wall Street analysts forecast CRML stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CRML is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Analyst Rating
0
Wall Street analysts forecast CRML stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CRML is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Buy
Hold
Sell
0
Current: 10.660
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
0
Current: 10.660
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
Clear Street
Buy
maintain
$14 -> $20
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
Reason
Clear Street
Price Target
$14 -> $20
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
maintain
Buy
Reason
Clear Street raised the firm's price target on Critical Metals to $20 from $14 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company signed a 50/50 joint venture term sheet with a leading industrial conglomerate in Saudi Arabia for a strategic partnership to develop and construct a rare earth processing facility there, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm expects nearly 100,000 metric tons of annual production of rare earth elements concentrate production at Tanbreez in Phase 1.
Clear Street
Tim Moore
initiated
$12
2025-09-03
Reason
Clear Street
Tim Moore
Price Target
$12
2025-09-03
initiated
Reason
Clear Street analyst Tim Moore initiated coverage of Critical Metals with a Buy rating and $12 price target. Critical Metals is \"a unique way for investors to gain exposure\" to rare earths and high-value metals used in high performance technology and magnets, says the analyst, who notes the company plans ore mining with the Tanbreez project in Greenland. The Tanbreez mining project is \"the key catalyst,\" adds the analyst, who assumes Critical Metals owns 92.5% of it by late December after reaching a capex milestone.
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