Should I Buy CRC? CRC 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy California Resources Corp (CRC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

55.420

1 Day change

2.86%

52 Week Range

58.410

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the chart is strong but stretched (RSI extremely overbought) and sits just below the next resistance zone.
Near-term odds skew to a pullback (pattern study shows ~60% chance of a ~-4.31% move next day), so chasing here has unfavorable timing.
Options flow is mixed-to-bearish short-term (heavy put volume vs calls) despite bullish open-interest structure.
Positives (insider/hedge-fund buying, CCUS/power optionality, mostly bullish Street ratings) make it a HOLD/avoid-chasing rather than a sell; better risk/reward would likely come on a dip toward ~$52 (pivot) or ~$49 (S1).

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages aligned positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.647 and expanding => upside momentum remains intact.
Overbought: RSI_6 at 84.5 => very overbought; historically this often precedes short-term mean reversion even in bull trends.
Levels: Pivot/support ~51.93; S1 ~49.06. Resistance: R1 ~54.81 already reclaimed; next resistance R2 ~56.58 (price 55.07 is between R1 and R2, a common “stall” zone).
Statistical near-term bias (pattern analogs): 60% chance of ~-4.31% next day; +3.79% over next week; +13.7% over next month (suggests short-term dip risk within a broader bullish backdrop).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (Open Interest): Put/Call OI ratio 0.37 (calls dominate: 9,706 call OI vs 3,587 put OI) => generally bullish longer-horizon positioning.
Flow (Volume): Put/Call volume ratio 3.0 with today’s volume far above average (today vs 30D avg ~10.26x) => near-term hedging/speculative downside demand is elevated.
Volatility: IV 30D ~38.6 vs historical vol ~30.1 => options imply more movement than recent realized; IV rank ~10.3 (low vs its own history) suggests implied vol isn’t “panic-high,” but options are still priced above realized.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

earnings on 2026-03-02 after hours could act as a catalyst if guidance/cash returns surprise positively.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

increase odds of a near-term pullback.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter (2025/Q3): revenue $878M (-11.94% YoY), net income $64M (-81.45% YoY), EPS $0.76 (-79.89% YoY).
Profitability: gross margin ~50 (-8.69% YoY) => weakening profitability trends versus last year.
Setup: the business appears more dependent on commodity/price realizations and execution, with recent YoY declines making the stock more sensitive to any disappointment into the next earnings.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Ratings skew: Mostly Buy/Overweight maintained (UBS Buy; Barclays Overweight; JPMorgan Overweight; Wells Fargo Overweight), but one notable downgrade (Pickering Energy to Neutral).
Price targets: recent trims dominate (UBS 64→63; Barclays 68→65; JPM 68→64; Wells 58→56) while Mizuho remains higher (72). Net effect: bullish stance, but expectations have been moderated.
Wall Street pros: shares seen near PDP value with additional upside from CCUS + power assets; some view CA regulatory backdrop as more de-risked than perceived.
Wall Street cons: commodity uncertainty/oversupply concerns and sector macro volatility limit near-term multiple expansion, aligning with the current “don’t chase strength” setup.

11 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CRC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CRC is 65.22 USD with a low forecast of 56 USD and a high forecast of 72 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

11 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 53.880

Low

Averages

65.22

High

Current: 53.880

Low

Averages

65.22

High

UBS

Buy

downgrade

$64 -> $63

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$64 -> $63

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

downgrade

Buy

Reason

UBS lowered the firm's price target on California Resources to $63 from $64 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

Barclays

Overweight -> Overweight

downgrade

$68 -> $65

2026-01-21

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$68 -> $65

2026-01-21

downgrade

Overweight -> Overweight

Reason

Barclays lowered the firm's price target on California Resources to $65 from $68 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the exploration and production group as part of a Q4 preview. The upstream sector's cash return model "remains resilient" amid macro volatility, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays see attractive opportunities in U.S. onshore. It tells investors to "tread carefully" through the near-term commodity uncertainty.

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CRC Should I Buy

CRC Should I Buy

Should You Buy California Resources Corp (CRC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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