Should I Buy CPRI? CPRI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Capri Holdings Ltd (CPRI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

20.180

1 Day change

2.59%

52 Week Range

28.270

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now (tactical): price is deeply oversold (RSI-6 ~16) with sentiment/positioning skewing bullish (put/call ratios low), which sets up a high-probability rebound even though the intermediate trend is still weak.
Earnings/deleveraging is a real catalyst: Q3 showed EPS beating expectations and net debt collapsing to ~$80M post-Versace sale, improving flexibility and lowering risk.
Clear near-term levels: downside risk is concentrated into ~$19.0 support, while a rebound target is the ~$23 pivot area.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.514) and expanding → bearish momentum still in control (this is not a confirmed trend reversal yet).
Mean-reversion setup: RSI-6 at 16.1 signals extreme oversold, often followed by a snapback rally (especially after an earnings-driven move).
Moving averages: converging MAs → selling pressure may be stabilizing, but not enough evidence of an uptrend yet.
Key levels:
- Current: 20.12
- Support: S1 20.53 (already slightly below), then S2 18.99 (major nearby downside marker)
- Resistance: Pivot 23.01, then R1 25.49

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Both OI put/call (0.67) and volume put/call (0.21) are bullish (calls dominate), suggesting traders are leaning to upside/rebound.
Activity: today volume ~~2,647 is ~101% of 30-day avg; open interest also elevated (~~108% vs avg) → active positioning around this move.
Volatility: 30D IV ~51.65 vs HV ~45.2 (IV modestly elevated); IV percentile ~36 / IV rank ~19 → not extreme panic pricing, but premiums are not “cheap.”

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Event-driven: Fiscal 2026 Q3 results showed EPS strength (reported headlines: adj. EPS ~$0.81, up materially YoY) despite revenue decline.
- Balance sheet catalyst: net debt reduced to ~$80M after Versace sale → materially improved financial flexibility.
- Guidance framing: FY2026 revenue guidance narrowed to $3.45B–$3.475B, implying steadier outlook vs fear of a sharper deterioration.
- Brand green shoots: commentary points to improving retail trends / early signs at Michael Kors, with margin initiatives ongoing.
- Street support: multiple upgrades/positive notes (Barclays Top Ideas; Baird upgrade; TD Cowen upgrade) can help stabilize sentiment after the selloff.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Top-line still shrinking: Q3 revenue was down YoY (news cites ~-4% YoY; provided snapshot shows a larger YoY decline—directionally still negative).
- Technical damage: MACD worsening and price sitting below the S1 support zone signals sellers still have control in the short run.
- Turnaround timing risk: several analysts (e.g., UBS/Wells) suggest recovery is back-half weighted and may take longer than bulls expected.
- Brand mix pressure: Michael Kors revenue down (~-5.6% per news) remains a key overhang until sustained comp improvement shows up.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: Fiscal 2026 / Q3.
Revenue: down YoY (headlines around $1.025B, declining YoY), indicating demand normalization/brand transition still ongoing.
Profitability/Cash flow: news highlights operating cash flow ~$271M and free cash flow ~$252M in Q3 → strong cash generation.
Deleveraging: net debt reduced dramatically to ~$80M, lowering financial risk.
Note: the provided financial snapshot shows Revenue -18.72% YoY, EPS -121% YoY, gross margin -4.4% YoY, which conflicts with the news headline of higher EPS; taken together, the key takeaway is top-line pressure persists while financial flexibility improved sharply.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend (last few weeks): sentiment improved with multiple upgrades/raised targets post-Q3, though some firms stayed neutral and/or trimmed targets.
Upgrades / bullish takes:
- Barclays: Overweight, PT $32, added to Top Ideas (retail trends improving).
- Baird: upgraded to Outperform, PT $26 (selloff viewed as harsh; risk/reward attractive).
- TD Cowen: upgraded to Buy, PT $32 (margin expansion + Kors repositioning).
More cautious takes:
- Wells Fargo: Equal Weight, PT cut to $21 (turnaround taking longer; results not enough vs expectations).
- UBS: Neutral, PT $22 (turnaround on track but more back-half weighted).
Wall Street pros vs cons:
- Pros: improving trends, margin initiatives, and much lower leverage post-asset sale.
- Cons: revenue decline and execution risk; the market wants faster proof of a sustainable brand turnaround.
Influential trading:
- Hedge funds/insiders: Neutral (no notable trend).
- Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available.

CPRI Should I Buy