Should I Buy CPAY? CPAY 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Corpay Inc (CPAY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

354.190

1 Day change

5.73%

52 Week Range

391.280

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: price is sitting on support after a pre-market selloff into earnings, while trend momentum remains bearish.
Best risk/reward improves after the earnings print (2/4 after-hours) clarifies direction; buying now is essentially an earnings gamble.
Upside case exists (strong Street targets + bullish options positioning), but near-term tape argues for patience rather than an immediate entry.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-3.513) and expanding downward, signaling bearish momentum is still strengthening.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~22.4 indicates oversold conditions (despite the label shown as “neutral”), which can support a short-term bounce—but oversold can persist in downtrends.
Moving averages: “Converging” MAs suggest a transition zone, but without a bullish cross/turn yet.
Levels: Price 297.69 is essentially on S1 = 297.407 (near-term support). A break below targets S2 = 288.522. Overhead resistance starts at Pivot = 311.789, then R1 = 326.172.
Probabilistic pattern read: similar-pattern stats imply downside bias (next week -5.22% expected path), consistent with the negative MACD.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put/Call OI ratio 0.4 is call-heavy (bullish skew). Today’s volume shows calls only (put volume 0), also bullish/”risk-on”.
Activity: Options volume is elevated (today vs 30d avg ~117%), suggesting heightened event positioning.
Volatility: 30d IV ~32.22 with IV percentile 76 (relatively rich). This typically reflects earnings/event premium; direction may be right, but option pricing implies bigger moves are already expected.
Takeaway: Options market is leaning bullish, but with elevated IV, the market is paying up for that bet—consistent with an event-driven setup.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Portfolio simplification: sale of PayByPhone can sharpen focus and potentially improve capital allocation narrative.
- Earnings catalyst (2/4 after-hours): consensus expects strong quarter (Est. EPS 5.94; revenue ~$1.23B). A beat/raise could quickly reverse the weak tape.
- Street narrative tailwinds: multiple notes argue stablecoin-disruption fears are “overblown” and see sustained mid-teens earnings growth path.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Immediate sentiment hit: shares down ~3.34% pre-market on PayByPhone divestiture headline, signaling investor uncertainty about the transaction/strategy.
- Technical pressure: bearish, expanding MACD suggests sellers still control the trend; support is being tested.
- Event risk: earnings after-hours today can gap the stock down if guidance or margins disappoint.
- Near-term statistical bias points to downside over the next week (pattern-based read: -5.22%).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue growth remains strong: $1.172B, +13.92% YoY.
Profitability growth is lagging: Net income +0.56% YoY and EPS +0.26% YoY (suggests costs/integration/operating leverage not fully flowing through yet).
Margins improved: Gross margin 70.84% (+1.84% YoY), a constructive sign for medium-term operating leverage if expenses normalize.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend (last ~2 months of updates shown): ratings have skewed more positive with multiple upgrades/initiations to Overweight/Outperform.
Key bullish actions: Cantor Fitzgerald initiated Overweight $385 (1/26); Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight $379 (1/26); Oppenheimer upgraded to Outperform $380 (12/05).
Mixed/tempered notes: Some firms cut price targets post-Q3 despite Buy/Overweight stances (e.g., BofA to $342; JPMorgan to $350; UBS to $315 Neutral), mainly due to sentiment overhang (stablecoin fears) and multiple compression.
Wall Street pros: durable competitive positioning (fleet/vehicle payments + cross-border), earnings growth visibility, and “stablecoin risk overblown.”
Wall Street cons: valuation/multiple overhang from stablecoin narrative, and sensitivity to macro/freight/trucking cycle and cross-border volumes.

11 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CPAY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CPAY is 356.2 USD with a low forecast of 315 USD and a high forecast of 400 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

8 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 335.000

Low

315

Averages

356.2

High

400

Current: 335.000

Low

315

Averages

356.2

High

400

Mizuho

Dan Dolev

Neutral

maintain

$320 -> $340

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Mizuho

Dan Dolev

Price Target

$320 -> $340

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev raised the firm's price target on Corpay to $340 from $320 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

JPMorgan

Overweight

maintain

$350 -> $390

2026-02-05

New

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$350 -> $390

2026-02-05

New

maintain

Overweight

Reason

JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Corpay to $390 from $350 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares post the Q4 report. The firm says the company exited the year with double-digit sales and earnings organic growth.

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CPAY Should I Buy

CPAY Should I Buy

Should You Buy Corpay Inc (CPAY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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