Should I Buy COLM? COLM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Columbia Sportswear Co (COLM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

63.070

1 Day change

3.27%

52 Week Range

92.880

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: today’s +14.7% gap/rip to ~$65.13 pushes the stock into an overextended, high-mean-reversion zone.
Options positioning is notably bearish (put-heavy), which often caps near-term upside after a spike.
Fundamentals/guidance are mixed: Q4 beat, but Q1 outlook missed and FY26 growth guidance is modest.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Price action: sharp upside gap (+14.7% regular, +17.18% pre-market) suggests a news-driven breakout, but also raises near-term pullback risk.
Momentum: MACD histogram at +0.3 and expanding supports bullish momentum today.
RSI (6): 78.15 indicates overbought/extended conditions (despite the provided label calling it “neutral,” the level itself is typically overbought), reducing attractiveness for an impatient entry.
Moving averages: described as converging—this often precedes larger moves, but after a large gap-up it can also mean the move is already “spent” short term.
Levels: reported pivots (Pivot 54.84, R1 57.17, R2 58.62) are far below the current price (~65.13), implying the stock is well beyond prior resistance and more vulnerable to a snapback toward the low-60s/high-50s.
Pattern-based forward read: similar-pattern model suggests ~60% odds of -1.1% next day and -2.45% next week, with a rebound bias (+2.48%) over the next month—i.e., not ideal timing for a chase-buy.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: strongly put-skewed (OI P/C 3.21; Volume P/C 2.88) → defensive/bearish positioning despite the price spike.
Liquidity/activity: today’s option volume 31 vs 30D avg volume ~119 (below average), so the put-skew is meaningful but not accompanied by big speculative volume.
Open interest: puts 2,943 vs calls 918 (heavy downside hedging).
Volatility: 30D IV ~40.73 with IV percentile 71.6 (elevated vs its recent distribution) → options pricing implies larger-than-usual moves; after a gap-up, elevated IV often coincides with choppier trading and pullbacks.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Q4 2025 earnings beat vs expectations (headline positive surprise).
- International growth pockets (LAAP +10%) show demand resilience outside the U.S.
- Gross margin improved YoY (51.55%, +0.84pp) supporting profitability quality.
- FY26 net sales guide still positive (+1% to +3%), suggesting a return to modest growth.
- Leadership actions: appointment of co-presidents can be read as an execution-focused reset to restart growth.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Guidance mismatch: Q1 outlook missed even after the Q4 beat—often leads to post-gap digestion.
- Latest quarter showed YoY declines: revenue, net income, and EPS all down.
- Options market skew is decisively bearish (put-heavy), which can signal expectations for downside/hedging pressure.
- Analysts’ price targets skew below current price (notably Citi PT $62 vs ~$65), implying limited upside in near term per the Street.
- No supportive “flow” tailwinds flagged: hedge funds neutral; insiders neutral; no notable politician/congress buying reported.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $1.070B, -2.40% YoY (top-line contraction).
Net income: $93.17M, -9.16% YoY (profit down faster than sales).
EPS: $1.73, -3.89% YoY.
Gross margin: 51.55%, +0.84pp YoY (a clear bright spot, indicates product/mix/pricing and/or cost control improvement).
Overall: improving margin quality, but growth is not yet re-accelerating—supports “wait for a better entry” rather than buying immediately after a spike.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: targets nudged up, but ratings remain cautious.
Citi (2026-02-04): Neutral, PT raised to $62 (from $55). View: big Q4 beat but Q1 outlook missed; balanced risk/reward.
UBS (2026-01-08): Sell, PT $39 (from $38). Still structurally negative despite broader softline optimism.
Wall Street pros: margin improvement + international growth + FY26 sales growth guidance.
Wall Street cons: near-term guidance weakness (Q1) + low overall growth + targets/rating mix suggests limited upside from current ~$65 and higher pullback risk.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast COLM stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COLM is 54.67 USD with a low forecast of 39 USD and a high forecast of 75 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

5 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 61.070

Low

Averages

54.67

High

Current: 61.070

Low

Averages

54.67

High

Baird

Neutral

maintain

$55 -> $63

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

Reason

Baird

Price Target

$55 -> $63

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Baird raised the firm's price target on Columbia Sportswear to $63 from $55 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q4 results where they raised estimates for stronger margins and positive orders.

Stifel

Buy

maintain

$60 -> $68

2026-02-04

New

Reason

Stifel

Price Target

$60 -> $68

2026-02-04

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

Stifel raised the firm's price target on Columbia Sportswear to $68 from $60 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Q4 results were better than feared, while the FY26 outlook points to sequentially strengthening fundamentals, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.

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COLM Should I Buy

COLM Should I Buy

Should You Buy Columbia Sportswear Co (COLM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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