Should I Buy COLL? COLL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc (COLL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

47.610

1 Day change

1.47%

52 Week Range

50.790

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Good buy right now for a momentum-to-fundamentals setup: technicals are turning up while fundamentals and Wall Street targets imply meaningful upside from ~$47.6.
Near-term trading level: price is sitting just below R1 ~47.95; a push through that level opens room toward R2 ~49.11.
Sentiment skew is bullish (very low put/call), and the next major catalyst is QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (pre-market).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram +0.044 and expanding → bullish momentum building.
RSI (6): 64.78 → bullish/neutral (not overbought yet), consistent with an advance but near the upper end of “neutral.”
Moving averages: converging → consolidation/coil; price action is likely to resolve with a directional move soon.
Key levels: Pivot 46.09 (important near-term support), Resistance 47.95 (R1) then 49.11 (R2); Support 44.22 (S1).
Pattern-based forward bias (model): suggests ~ -1.01% next day, ~flat next week, and +2.69% next month → favors buying for the month horizon over day-trading.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest put/call = 0.02 (puts extremely light vs calls) → positioning skew is strongly bullish.
Volume is 0 today → sentiment read is mainly from open interest, not fresh flow.
Implied vol (30d) 36.57 vs HV 46.32 with IV rank ~3.46 / IV percentile ~0.4 → options are priced relatively cheaply vs the stock’s realized movement (often consistent with complacency / lower hedging demand).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (pre-market) with Street EPS estimate shown at ~2.02.
- Fundamental momentum: strong YoY growth in the latest reported quarter supports continued re-rating.
- Analyst tone: multiple Buy/Overweight ratings and rising targets (notably H.C. Wainwright) reinforce upside narrative.
- Positioning: very low put/call open interest ratio suggests market participants are leaning bullish.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- No fresh news in the past week → fewer near-term narrative catalysts driving immediate upside.
- Technicals near resistance: price is just under R1 ~47.95, which can cap gains short-term if it fails to break.
- Flow signals: hedge funds and insiders are described as Neutral (no strong “smart money” urgency recently).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $209.361M, +31.42% YoY (strong top-line acceleration).
Net income: $31.507M, +237.51% YoY (profitability ramp).
EPS: $0.84, +211.11% YoY (earnings power improving materially).
Gross margin: 61.7%, +1.55% YoY (incremental margin expansion supports earnings durability).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: targets have generally moved up (Truist $47→$55; H.C. Wainwright $44→$46→$60), while Barclays slightly trimmed $58→$56 but maintained Overweight.
Current Street stance (pros): multi-year growth runway (notably referenced for Jornay PM), improving estimates, and attractive theme positioning; overall bias remains bullish with targets mostly mid-$50s to $60.
Cons / reservations: at least one modest target trim (Barclays) suggests some conservatism on 2026 outlook assumptions, but rating stayed positive.
Influential buyers/sellers: no congress trading data available in the last 90 days; hedge/insider trends reported as Neutral.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast COLL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COLL is 56.75 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 60 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 46.920

Low

Averages

56.75

High

Current: 46.920

Low

Averages

56.75

High

Barclays

Overweight

downgrade

$58 -> $56

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$58 -> $56

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Collegium Pharmaceutical to $56 from $58 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's' estimates to reflect its initial fiscal 2026 outlook.

H.C. Wainwright

Buy

maintain

$46 -> $60

2026-01-09

Reason

H.C. Wainwright

Price Target

$46 -> $60

2026-01-09

maintain

Buy

Reason

H.C. Wainwright raised the firm's price target on Collegium Pharmaceutical to $60 from $46 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm cites the company's 2026 business updates and multiple expansion due to its "multi-year growth runway" for Jornay for the target bump.

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COLL Should I Buy

COLL Should I Buy

Should You Buy Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc (COLL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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