Not a good buy right now: price action is in a confirmed downtrend (bearish MA stack + worsening MACD), and today’s break below the S1 level (181.98) signals weak near-term demand.
Although COIN is extremely oversold (RSI-6 ≈ 6.2) and could snap back briefly, the higher-probability path remains further downside/volatility into earnings (2026-02-12 after hours) and ongoing regulatory headlines.
Options flow is leaning defensive short-term (put-heavy volume), reinforcing that traders are still positioning for downside despite call-heavy open interest.
Volatility: IV30 ≈ 70.77 vs HV ≈ 69.14 (options pricing is rich but not extreme); IV percentile ~65.6 indicates elevated volatility regime.
Activity: Today’s volume (~253k) is below recent averages (vs 5D/10D averages ~340k/310k), so sentiment signal is bearish-leaning but not a “capitulation” spike.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
can trigger a sharp relief rally if guidance/volumes surprise positively.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
would be a clean technical breakdown area.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Growth: Revenue rose to ~$1.87B (+55.05% YoY), showing strong top-line recovery.
Profitability inflection: Net income ~$432.6M (+472.95% YoY) and EPS 1.48 (+428.57% YoY) indicate substantial operating leverage when volumes/market conditions cooperate.
Margins: Gross margin ~86.44% (+0.80% YoY), still very strong for the model.
Key takeaway: fundamentals are improving, but the stock is currently trading more on forward volume expectations + regulatory risk than trailing results.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: mixed but generally constructive long-term, with several price target trims alongside notable upgrades.
Bullish/pro:
BofA upgraded to Buy with a $340 target (product velocity + expanding TAM).
Cantor initiated Overweight with a $277 target (platform expansion + better earnings consistency from subscription/services).
Goldman (per news summary) upgraded to Buy, citing shift from cyclical to structural growth (services/stablecoins/custody).
Cautious/cons:
Baird initiated Neutral at $240, explicitly preferring an incremental pullback and citing Clarity Act uncertainty + volume deterioration.
Barclays kept Equal Weight and cut target to $258 ahead of Q4, pointing to softer volumes and decelerating USDC growth.
Multiple firms cut targets (e.g., Rosenblatt, Bernstein) even while keeping positive ratings—signaling lowered near-term expectations.
Cons: revenue still highly sensitive to trading volumes/crypto sentiment, and regulatory actions can abruptly reset valuation.
People Also Watch
Wall Street analysts forecast COIN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COIN is 361.63 USD with a low forecast of 230 USD and a high forecast of 440 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
25 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast COIN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COIN is 361.63 USD with a low forecast of 230 USD and a high forecast of 440 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 146.120
Low
230
Averages
361.63
High
440
Current: 146.120
Low
230
Averages
361.63
High
440
BTIG
Buy
downgrade
$420 -> $340
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
Reason
BTIG
Price Target
$420 -> $340
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
downgrade
Buy
Reason
BTIG lowered the firm's price target on Coinbase to $340 from $420 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of the Q4 report on February 12. The stock has fallen 49% since the Q3 report, compared to the total crypto market cap falling 32%, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BTIG attributes Coinbase's selloff expectations for Q4 weakness in transaction volume relative to Q3 and the broader market. The firm sees an attractive entry point at current share levels. Coinbase is making in "creating a flywheel" between its trading business and digital asset applications, contends the analyst. BTIG sees the Q4 report showcasing how the company's revenue has diversified beyond "volatile" transaction revenues.
Baird
Robert Bamberger
Neutral
initiated
$240
2026-01-28
Reason
Baird
Robert Bamberger
Price Target
$240
2026-01-28
initiated
Neutral
Reason
Baird analyst Robert Bamberger last night initiated coverage of Coinbase with a Neutral rating and $240 price target. Coinbase is the largest U.S.-based crypto exchange, offering retail and institutional trading with increasing use cases, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says that while Coinbase has a "strong franchise and solid growth story," the stock's risk/reward is balanced given its recent trading volume deterioration and Clarity Act uncertainty. Baird prefers to wait for an incremental pullback in the shares to upgrade the name.
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