Not a good buy right now: price is extended (RSI6 ~75.95) and sitting close to key resistance (R1 ~233.99) ahead of earnings.
Near-term probability model points to downside drift (-2.95% 1-week, -4.72% 1-month), which is unfavorable for an impatient entry.
Hedge funds have been net sellers (selling up ~147.97% QoQ), a notable demand headwind.
Options positioning is mildly bullish (put/call < 1), but implied volatility is elevated (IV percentile ~78), implying expensive risk into the Feb 4 after-hours earnings event.
Net: take profits / avoid new buys at this level; the setup is better for sellers than fresh buyers right now.
Technical Analysis
Trend: bullish structure with moving averages stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), confirming an uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +2.419 and expanding, supporting continuation—but also consistent with a late-stage/extended move.
Overbought risk: RSI_6 at ~75.95 (stretched), often followed by consolidation or pullback.
Levels: Pivot ~214.12 (important near-term support); Resistance R1 ~233.99 then R2 ~246.26. Current ~227.10 is closer to resistance than support (skewed risk/reward).
Volatility: 30D IV ~74.67 with IV percentile ~78 (elevated), consistent with event pricing into earnings.
Activity: Today volume ~5,064 vs 30D avg (55.14) indicates below-average volume, while open interest is heavy (total OI ~110,931; today vs OI avg ~111.44) implying positioning is already built.
Interpretation: sentiment isn’t bearish, but elevated IV + imminent earnings increases the odds of a sharp post-event move; from a “buy now” perspective, risk/reward is unattractive at 227 near resistance.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
Revenue growth remains strong (latest quarter revenue +17.3% YoY) and gross margin improved (+7.32% YoY), supporting the AI/optical demand narrative.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
if guidance disappoints.
raises pullback probability.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q1.
Revenue: $1.581B, up +17.30% YoY (clear top-line acceleration).
Gross margin: 36.63%, up +7.32% YoY (positive quality of growth).
Net income: $192.87M, down -3343.69% YoY; EPS: 1.19, down -3075.00% YoY (major YoY profitability deterioration—whether mix/one-time items or costs, it’s a negative headline into earnings).
Overall: growth is strong, but earnings quality/consistency is a concern right before an earnings event.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend: strong wave of upward price-target revisions from Dec 2025 through Jan 2026, largely tied to AI/optical demand strength.
Recent highlights: Citi raised PT to $250 (Buy); Susquehanna to $235 (Positive); Stifel to $220 (Buy); JPMorgan to $215 (Overweight). Morgan Stanley is more cautious (Equal Weight) and, despite raising PT, sits at $190 (below the current ~$227).
Wall Street pros: broad AI/optical infrastructure tailwinds, improving demand backdrop, and margin improvement.
Wall Street cons: valuation/expectations look elevated after the run (some neutrals), and not all targets support substantial upside from current price (e.g., MS $190; Stifel $220 below spot).
Influential/Political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders are neutral with no significant recent trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast COHR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COHR is 175.92 USD with a low forecast of 113 USD and a high forecast of 220 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast COHR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COHR is 175.92 USD with a low forecast of 113 USD and a high forecast of 220 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 209.240
Low
113
Averages
175.92
High
220
Current: 209.240
Low
113
Averages
175.92
High
220
JPMorgan
Samik Chatterjee
Overweight
maintain
$215 -> $245
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
Reason
JPMorgan
Samik Chatterjee
Price Target
$215 -> $245
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee raised the firm's price target on Coherent to $245 from $215 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's fiscal Q2 report included new wins and enhanced demand visibility, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Coherent is seeing portfolio-wide demand strength.
Rosenblatt
Mike Genovese
Buy
maintain
$220 -> $300
2026-02-05
New
Reason
Rosenblatt
Mike Genovese
Price Target
$220 -> $300
2026-02-05
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
Rosenblatt analyst Mike Genovese raised the firm's price target on Coherent to $300 from $220 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
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