Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: near-term momentum is weakening (negative, expanding MACD histogram) while price is sitting just above key support (~36.33).
Options flow is short-term cautious (put volume dominates), and a large fund sale creates near-term supply/overhang.
Longer-term setup remains constructive (bullish moving-average stack, strong Street targets tied to bezuclastinib catalysts), so it’s a watch/hold until momentum turns back up or price clearly reclaims the pivot (~38.07).
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but MACD histogram is -0.171 and negatively expanding, signaling weakening upside momentum in the near term.
RSI: RSI(6) at 46.68 = neutral/slightly soft; no oversold bounce signal.
Levels: Price 36.4 is below pivot 38.07 and sitting right on S1 ~36.33 (immediate support). Next support S2 ~35.25; resistances at 39.81 (R1) and 40.89 (R2).
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern stats suggest ~70% chance of about -1% next day and -3.69% next week, reinforcing a near-term cautious bias.
Positioning (Open Interest): Put/Call OI ratio 0.67 suggests more calls than puts outstanding (structurally more bullish positioning).
Flow (Today’s Volume): Put/Call volume ratio 2.12 with 250 puts vs 118 calls indicates bearish/hedging pressure in today’s trading.
Volatility: IV30 ~88.32 vs very high historical volatility ~234.34; IV percentile 28 and IV rank 9.03 imply IV is relatively low vs its own history (options not “priced for panic”), but the volume skew is still defensive.
Activity: Today’s option volume is elevated vs average (today vs 30D avg ~11.93), meaning sentiment signals from flow are more meaningful than on a quiet day.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
Clinical/Regulatory narrative remains strong: multiple positive trial readouts referenced by analysts (PEAK, APEX, SUMMIT) and expectation of an “uneventful” FDA review process for bezuclastinib in non-advanced mastocytosis (per H.C. Wainwright).
Wall Street support: Multiple firms raised targets sharply after Phase 3 PEAK data; several see a path to standard-of-care positioning and rapid commercial scaling.
Hedge fund trend: Reported hedge fund buying up ~2828.69% QoQ (suggests institutional accumulation in the broader window, despite the recent block sale news).
Upcoming event: Earnings on 2026-02-24 (pre-market) can act as a volatility/catalyst date (even for pre-revenue biotechs via cash/burn or pipeline updates).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Options flow is defensive today: put volume dominating can reflect near-term bearish positioning/hedging.
Revenue: 0 (no YoY change; still effectively pre-commercial).
Net income: -$80.93M (loss narrowed ~14.58% YoY), indicating some improvement in loss trend.
EPS: -0.59 (down ~7.81% YoY), showing per-share loss worsened versus prior year period despite net loss improvement (possible share count effects/expenses).
Takeaway: Financials are driven by R&D and cash burn dynamics rather than sales; near-term trading will likely follow pipeline/regulatory headlines more than fundamentals.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Predominantly upward revisions to price targets and several upgrades since the Phase 3 PEAK data.
Notable target raises: JPMorgan to $67 (Overweight), H.C. Wainwright to $52 then $50 (Buy), Jefferies to $48/$45 (Buy), Leerink to $50 (Outperform), Stifel to $40 (Buy), Wedbush to $38 (Outperform), Baird to $34 (Neutral).
Wall Street pros: Strong efficacy narrative from pivotal data; multiple analysts describe potential standard-of-care positioning and large market opportunity.
Wall Street cons: Still a development-stage biotech with event risk (regulatory/clinical execution) and near-term stock supply concerns highlighted by the large fund sale; at least one major firm remains Neutral (Baird), implying not unanimous conviction.
Wall Street analysts forecast COGT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COGT is 48.7 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 67 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast COGT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COGT is 48.7 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 67 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 35.700
Low
34
Averages
48.7
High
67
Current: 35.700
Low
34
Averages
48.7
High
67
H.C. Wainwright
Buy
maintain
$50 -> $52
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
Reason
H.C. Wainwright
Price Target
$50 -> $52
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
maintain
Buy
Reason
H.C. Wainwright raised the firm's price target on Cogent Biosciences to $52 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees an "uneventful" FDA review process for bezuclastinib in non-advanced mastocytosis.
JPMorgan
NULL -> Overweight
maintain
$65 -> $67
2025-12-19
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$65 -> $67
2025-12-19
maintain
NULL -> Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Cogent Biosciences to $67 from $65 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm updated models in the smid-cap biotechnology group.
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