Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: short-term pattern stats point to downside over the next week/month, and there is no proprietary buy signal to override that.
Price is only modestly above the pivot (6.155) with nearby resistance (6.871); risk/reward is not compelling until either a clean break above resistance or a pullback closer to support.
Options positioning is extremely call-skewed (bullish sentiment), but implied volatility is very high, which reduces the attractiveness of chasing shares here without a strong catalyst.
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Moving averages are converging, suggesting a transition phase rather than a strong established trend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is above zero (0.0949) but positively contracting, indicating bullish momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI: RSI(6) ~55.8 (neutral), not signaling an oversold bounce setup.
Levels: Pivot 6.155 is the key near-term line; resistance at R1 6.871 then R2 7.313. Support at S1 5.438 then S2 4.996.
Quant pattern read: Similar candlestick pattern suggests a higher probability of weakness next week (-6.46%) and next month (-2.57%), which argues against buying immediately.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Open interest put-call ratio 0.1 and volume put-call ratio 0.03 = extremely call-dominant, indicating bullish/speculative sentiment.
Volatility: IV30 ~108.63 vs historical vol ~91.44; IV percentile ~91.2 = options are priced very expensively.
Activity: Today’s volume (1032) is ~28.18x the 30-day average, signaling a sentiment/positioning surge rather than quiet accumulation.
Takeaway: Sentiment is bullish, but the very high IV suggests the market is already pricing large moves; that weakens the case for an impatient spot buy without a catalyst.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Analyst upgrade catalyst: CJS Securities upgraded to Outperform with a $15 target (recent positive perception shift).
Operational trend: 2025/Q3 revenue grew +3.51% YoY and margins improved, supporting a stabilization narrative.
Losses narrowing materially YoY (net income and EPS improved sharply), which can re-rate sentiment if the trajectory continues.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
No near-term news catalysts reported this week; the stock may trade mostly on technicals/positioning.
High implied volatility implies elevated uncertainty and can precede sharp reversals after call-heavy positioning.
Short-term pattern probabilities lean bearish over the next week/month, increasing the risk of buying into a near-term downswing.
Balance sheet/capital allocation overhang highlighted by Wall Street (focus on balance sheet management and portfolio reconstruction).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 472.562M, +3.51% YoY (modest growth).
Profitability: Net income -88.878M, improved +94.63% YoY (losses narrowed substantially, but still negative).
Recent changes are mixed but improving on balance:
2026-01-27: CJS Securities upgraded to Outperform (from Market Perform) with a $15 PT (bullish).
2026-01-21: B. Riley kept Neutral and cut PT to $13 from $18, citing balance sheet/capital allocation and portfolio reconstruction focus (cautious).
Wall Street pros: Recovery narrative into 2026, improving margins and narrowing losses, and at least one fresh upgrade with large upside targets.
Wall Street cons: Near-term execution/noise, balance-sheet/capital allocation constraints, and target cut from another firm signaling lingering skepticism.
Wall Street analysts forecast CODI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CODI is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Analyst Rating
0
Wall Street analysts forecast CODI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CODI is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Buy
Hold
Sell
0
Current: 6.280
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
0
Current: 6.280
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
CJS Securities
Market Perform -> Outperform
upgrade
$15
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
Reason
CJS Securities
Price Target
$15
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
upgrade
Market Perform -> Outperform
Reason
CJS Securities upgraded Compass Diversified to Outperform from Market Perform with a $15 price target.
B. Riley
Neutral
downgrade
$18 -> $13
2026-01-21
Reason
B. Riley
Price Target
$18 -> $13
2026-01-21
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
B. Riley lowered the firm's price target on Compass Diversified to $13 from $18 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The next 6-12 months for Compass Diversified are expected to focus on balance sheet management, capital allocation, and portfolio reconstruction, with 2026 likely shaping up as a recovery year following a noisy 4Q25 impacted by headwinds at Arnold and other expenses, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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