Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price is in a confirmed downtrend (bearish MA stack + weakening MACD) and is trading below the key S1 level (1.959), which raises the odds of further near-term downside.
Options positioning is mixed and risk is elevated (very high IV into upcoming earnings), so the “right now” entry is unattractive without a reversal trigger.
If you already hold shares, this setup argues for reducing/avoiding adding until price reclaims ~1.96–2.17 and momentum stabilizes.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), consistent with a sustained downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.00649) and negatively expanding, signaling downside momentum is strengthening rather than fading.
RSI: RSI(6) at 34.27 is weak and nearing oversold, which can create bounces, but it is not a buy signal by itself while trend/momentum remain bearish.
Key levels:
Support: S2 = 1.828 (next major downside reference), then current area near 1.88.
The stock trading below S1 (1.959) suggests rallies may be sold unless it can reclaim and hold above that zone.
Pattern-based forward odds (model): modest bullish drift probabilities (+0.71% next day, +1.76% next week, +5.38% next month) but currently fighting strong bearish technical structure.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning (Open Interest PCR 0.24): call open interest (2618) far exceeds put open interest (638) → structurally more bullish/speculative longer-dated positioning.
Today’s trading (Volume PCR 5.0): puts traded more than calls today (put vol 10 vs call vol 2) → near-term sentiment/hedging skewed bearish.
Volatility: IV30 ≈ 220.63% with IV percentile 94.82 → options are extremely expensive, implying the market is pricing a large move (often around catalysts).
Flow intensity: today’s option volume is very high vs 30-day average (17.14x), reinforcing “event-driven” pricing/positioning.
Takeaway: sentiment is mixed (bullish OI base, bearish near-term volume), with elevated event risk priced in.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
and overall streaming business +13% (supports the narrative of improving platform traction).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Downtrend pressure: technical setup remains bearish (MA stack + weakening MACD), increasing the chance that any bounce fails.
Profitability still negative: net income and EPS improved but remain losses (net income -$5.678M; EPS -0.31).
Event risk already priced: very high IV suggests the market expects a big move; if earnings/news disappoint, downside can be sharp.
Microcap dynamics: small market cap (~$36.77M) can amplify volatility and make price action less predictable around catalysts.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2026/Q2
Revenue: $12.357M, -3.00% YoY (mild contraction).
Margins: Gross margin 48.53%, +12.34% YoY (clear improvement in unit economics).
Earnings: Net income -$5.678M, improved +312.65% YoY (less negative); EPS -0.31, improved +244.44% YoY.
Bottom line: profitability trend is improving meaningfully, but the business is still loss-making and needs renewed revenue growth to support a sustained re-rate.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, suggesting limited/unclear Wall Street coverage or no recent updates in the dataset.
Wall Street-style cons: shrinking revenue, ongoing losses, microcap risk profile, and technicals currently signaling continued weakness.
Net view from the available data: fundamentals are improving, but the market tape/technicals do not support buying aggressively right now.
Wall Street analysts forecast CNVS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CNVS is 7.5 USD with a low forecast of 6 USD and a high forecast of 9 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CNVS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CNVS is 7.5 USD with a low forecast of 6 USD and a high forecast of 9 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 1.830
Low
6
Averages
7.5
High
9
Current: 1.830
Low
6
Averages
7.5
High
9
Benchmark
Daniel Kurnos
Speculative Buy
maintain
$10 -> $9
AI Analysis
2025-10-24
Reason
Benchmark
Daniel Kurnos
Price Target
$10 -> $9
AI Analysis
2025-10-24
maintain
Speculative Buy
Reason
Benchmark analyst Daniel Kurnos lowered the firm's price target on Cineverse to $9 from $10 and keeps a Speculative Buy rating on the shares. While the firm had been hopeful that the next slate of films that Cineverse had cheaply acquired to follow their new blueprint would aggregate to the same level of revenue and profitability as Terrifier 3, "the bar was just set too high," the analyst tells investors. The firm is using the quarter as an opportunity to reset expectations for Cineverse this year, bringing its EBITDA forecast in by $5M, the analyst noted.
Alliance Global Partners
Buy
maintain
$7 -> $9
2025-06-27
Reason
Alliance Global Partners
Price Target
$7 -> $9
2025-06-27
maintain
Buy
Reason
Alliance Global Partners raised the firm's price target on Cineverse to $9 from $7 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following Q4 results. A majority of the increase in revenue was driven by the ancillary revenues generated by Terrifier 3, which became the highest-grossing non-rated film ever, according to the firm. Cineverse is taking advantage of the success of Terrifier 3 and has built a consistent slate of movies for box office release, Alliance Global Partners told investors in a research note.
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