Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is pushing into near-term resistance (R1 ~37.93) with momentum starting to cool (MACD positive but contracting).
Sentiment is mixed-to-negative: hedge funds have been heavy net sellers and analysts have recently downgraded/trimmed targets.
Fundamentals show revenue growth but sharp profitability deterioration in 2025/Q3, raising near-term confidence risk into the next earnings (2026-03-04 pre-market).
Momentum: MACD histogram is above 0 (bullish) but positively contracting, implying upside momentum is fading.
RSI(6) ~66.6: not overbought, but elevated—risk of short-term stall/pullback increases.
Levels: Pivot ~36.59 as near support; immediate resistance at R1 ~37.93 (current ~37.9 is right under it); next resistance R2 ~38.77. A clean breakout above ~37.93–38.00 would improve near-term upside odds, but right now the stock is “at resistance.”
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Put/Call ratios (OI 0.51; Volume 0.33) skew bullish—more call interest and call activity than puts.
Activity: Today’s option volume is elevated vs 30-day average (~128%), signaling heightened trader engagement.
Volatility: 30D IV ~28.5 vs historical vol ~24.7 (IV modestly rich), consistent with some event/earnings premium building.
Takeaway: Options market leans optimistic, but not at extreme levels (IV percentile ~41.6).
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Technical trend remains upward (bullish MA alignment), so break above ~38 could trigger momentum buying.
Options positioning is net call-leaning (bullish skew).
Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 results on 2026-03-04 (pre-market) could re-rate the stock if cash flow/returns guidance surprises positively.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
while MACD momentum is waning.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $9.516B, +7.01% YoY (top-line growth).
Net income: $0.6B, -73.52% YoY (sharp profitability decline).
Read-through: Growth is present on revenue, but the magnitude of earnings/margin deterioration is a near-term negative and makes “buy right now” less attractive heading into the next earnings cycle.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings/targets have drifted more cautious.
2026-01-23 Morgan Stanley: PT cut to C$50 (from C$51), Equal Weight.
2026-01-20 JPMorgan: PT cut to C$48 (from C$49), Neutral.
2026-01-06 Evercore ISI: Downgrade to In Line (from Outperform), PT C$50; flags higher capex/headwinds to near-term cash returns.
2026-01-02 Goldman Sachs: PT cut to $35 (from $36) but kept Buy.
2025-11-24 Desjardins: Downgrade to Hold (from Buy).
Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: Some bulls (e.g., GS Buy) view macro headwinds as priced and look to longer-dated FCF.
Cons: Multiple firms are neutral/hold with PT trims; concern centers on oil macro sensitivity and a capex-heavy growth pivot constraining near-term shareholder returns.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available; no politician/influential-figure trades provided.
Wall Street analysts forecast CNQ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CNQ is 39.17 USD with a low forecast of 33.83 USD and a high forecast of 62 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CNQ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CNQ is 39.17 USD with a low forecast of 33.83 USD and a high forecast of 62 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 37.890
Low
33.83
Averages
39.17
High
62
Current: 37.890
Low
33.83
Averages
39.17
High
62
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
downgrade
$51 -> $50
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$51 -> $50
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Canadian Natural to C$50 from C$51 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm marked its 2026-27 oil price deck for strip as of January 7 in conjunction with its Q4 preview for the E&Ps, oil majors and Canadian producers. The firm expects "fairly clean" Q4 operational updates but lighter cash flow from price realizations, the analyst tells investors in the preview.
JPMorgan
Neutral
downgrade
$49 -> $48
2026-01-20
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$49 -> $48
2026-01-20
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Canadian Natural to C$48 from C$49 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the integrated oils sector as part of its 2026 outlook. The outlook for the group continues to shaped by supply side risks for oil, but a more constructive outlook downstream, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Amid the rise in geopolitical risks, JPMorgan says the U.S. majors screen more attractive than the Canadian integrateds. It cites relative valuations for the rating changes.
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