Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price is pressing into resistance (~25.32) while options flow is aggressively put-skewed (near-term bearish).
Technicals are positive but stretched (RSI 67.7) and risk/reward is unfavorable at this level vs nearby support (24.00 / ~23.19).
Fundamentals and recent quarter trends are weak YoY, and news highlights elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~4.78), which can amplify downside if earnings/distribution headlines disappoint.
A better entry would be on a pullback toward ~24 or after the 2026-02-18 (QDEC 2025) earnings catalyst clarifies outlook; at 25.17, the setup is more “wait” than “buy.”
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram +0.15 and expanding indicates bullish momentum is improving.
RSI: RSI(6) ~67.7 (near overbought zone), suggesting limited immediate upside before a pause/pullback.
Moving averages: Converging MAs point to consolidation; breakout attempts can fail near resistance.
Key levels: Pivot 23.999 (first key support), S1 23.185; resistance at R1 24.813 already reclaimed and price is now near R2 25.315 (tight upside room).
Quant pattern read-through: Similar-pattern stats imply slight negative drift ahead (-1.17% 1-week, -5.2% 1-month), aligning with “don’t chase at resistance.”
Sentiment: Open-interest P/C ~1.09 is mildly bearish/defensive positioning; volume P/C ~8.2 is strongly bearish for today’s flow (heavy put demand).
Activity/positioning: Options volume is ~15.1x the 30-day average, signaling elevated hedging/speculation.
Volatility: 30D IV ~36.25 vs HV ~42.63 (IV below realized), and IV is below the 5D/10D IV averages (cooling), which can coincide with “fade the pop” price action into resistance.
Takeaway: Options market is not confirming a clean upside chase at current levels; it’s skewed to near-term caution.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Hedge funds are buying (reported buying amount +101.37% QoQ), a supportive medium-term signal.
Film slate optimism in analyst commentary (notably MoffettNathanson upgrade) supports a 2026 recovery narrative.
Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-18 (pre-market) can reset expectations if results/outlook beat.
Price is above key pivot/support (~24), so bulls still control structure unless it breaks back below that area.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
increases sensitivity to box office/distribution disappointments.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $857.5M, down -6.98% YoY (top-line contraction).
Net income: $48.9M, down -73.45% YoY (profitability deterioration).
EPS: $0.39, down -67.23% YoY.
Gross margin: 57.78%, down -1.83% YoY (slight margin compression).
Read-through: Growth is currently moving the wrong direction heading into the next earnings event, making “buy now” less attractive without a clear technical/AI trigger.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating/target trend: Price targets have been cut across multiple firms (e.g., JPM $37→$31; B. Riley $35→$29; Morgan Stanley $35→$28; Deutsche $34→$32), reflecting a more cautious box office/outlook view.
Notable positive change: MoffettNathanson upgraded to Buy (PT $30), citing a stronger 2026 slate and improved balance sheet/entry point.
Wall Street pros: Potentially better 2026 film slate; some firms remain constructive (Buy/Overweight ratings persist) and see upside toward ~$30-$32.
Wall Street cons: Lowered box office forecasts, valuation/catalysts “already played out” per Morgan Stanley, and distribution/industry-structure uncertainty.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available; insider trend is neutral with no significant recent pattern.
Wall Street analysts forecast CNK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CNK is 33.67 USD with a low forecast of 28 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CNK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CNK is 33.67 USD with a low forecast of 28 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 25.370
Low
28
Averages
33.67
High
37
Current: 25.370
Low
28
Averages
33.67
High
37
B. Riley
Drew Crum
Neutral
downgrade
$35 -> $29
AI Analysis
2026-01-22
Reason
B. Riley
Drew Crum
Price Target
$35 -> $29
AI Analysis
2026-01-22
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
B. Riley analyst Drew Crum lowered the firm's price target on Cinemark (CNK) to $29 from $35 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm reviewed 4Q25 and previews exhibitor earnings with a slightly more subdued but still positive outlook following a weak holiday box office, a reassessed film slate, and potential valuation pressure from Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)-related developments, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
JPMorgan
Overweight
to
NULL
downgrade
$37 -> $31
2026-01-22
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$37 -> $31
2026-01-22
downgrade
Overweight
to
NULL
Reason
JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Cinemark to $31 from $37 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model ahead of the Q4 report. JPMorgan reduced its 2026 North America box office revenue estimate to $9.57B from $9.75B.
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