Should I Buy CNH? CNH 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy CNH Industrial NV (CNH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

12.360

1 Day change

3.60%

52 Week Range

14.270

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: the stock is extended after a sharp +4.9% move and is trading above key resistance levels, making near-term risk/reward unattractive for a fresh entry.
Short-term momentum is positive, but it’s not backed by improving fundamentals (Q3’25 profitability collapsed) and institutional positioning is negative (hedge funds net selling).
Best stance right now is HOLD (or avoid initiating) until price action resets or fundamentals/estimates stabilize.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0073) and expanding, supporting bullish momentum.
Overbought/Stretch: RSI_6 at 73.57 signals the move is stretched near-term (prone to snapbacks).
Levels: Current price 11.7914 is above Pivot (10.897) and above R2 (11.348), indicating a breakout/extension; prior resistance (11.35 area) becomes first support zone.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest a transition phase; today’s surge tilts it bullish, but follow-through is needed to confirm a durable uptrend.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Extremely call-heavy open interest (P/C OI 0.08) and call-skewed volume (P/C vol 0.39) indicate bullish positioning.
Volatility/price of options: IV (32.17) is below HV (34.13) with low IV rank (9.69) and IV percentile (36) → options pricing isn’t signaling panic; sentiment reads constructive.
Activity: Today’s volume (159) is below typical (66.81% of 30D avg), so the bullish skew is notable but not driven by unusually high participation.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Next major event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-17 (pre-market) could reset expectations if results/guide surprise positively.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Fundamentals deteriorated sharply in 2025/Q3 (EPS -75% YoY; net income -73.86% YoY), undermining confidence in a sustained rerating.
- Hedge funds are selling aggressively (selling amount +125.43% QoQ), a meaningful headwind.
- Analyst actions skew negative recently: multiple price target cuts post-Q3 and a JPMorgan downgrade to Underweight with a $10 target.
- Macro/industry risks cited by analysts: tariff headwinds, Brazil concerns, and potential North America large ag equipment downside beyond 2025 as farm profitability compresses.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 4.399B, down -5.48% YoY (top-line contraction).
Profitability: Net income 80M, down -73.86% YoY; EPS 0.06, down -75% YoY (sharp earnings compression).
Margins: Gross margin 31.92%, down -2.53% YoY (pressure persists, not improving yet).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: predominantly price target cuts following the Q3 earnings miss, plus a notable downgrade.
Key changes: JPMorgan cut PT to $10.50 then downgraded to Underweight with $10; Citi cut PT to $13 (kept Buy); Northland cut PT to $16 (kept Outperform); UBS cut PT to $15 (kept Buy); DA Davidson cut PT to $10 (kept Neutral).
Wall Street pros: belief in an ag-cycle bottoming in FY25 and better performance in 2H FY26; several firms still rate it Buy/Outperform.
Wall Street cons: near-term earnings/guidance pressure, tariffs, Brazil weakness, and risk of a longer downturn in NA ag equipment demand—reflected in the downgrade and reduced targets.

13 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CNH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CNH is 12.23 USD with a low forecast of 9.5 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

8 Buy

4 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 11.930

Low

9.5

Averages

12.23

High

Current: 11.930

Low

9.5

Averages

12.23

High

JPMorgan

Neutral -> Underweight

downgrade

$10

AI Analysis

2025-11-26

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$10

AI Analysis

2025-11-26

downgrade

Neutral -> Underweight

Reason

JPMorgan downgraded CNH Industrial to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $10, down from $10.50.

JPMorgan

Neutral -> Underweight

downgrade

$10

2025-11-26

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$10

2025-11-26

downgrade

Neutral -> Underweight

Reason

As previously reported, JPMorgan downgraded CNH Industrial (CNH) to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $10, down from $10.50. The firm is updating its model based on the industry outlook for FY26 from Deere (DE) which had reported Q4 results, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan adds that it sees downside for North America large ag equipment sales beyond 2025 as farm profitability compresses from peak levels.

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CNH Should I Buy

CNH Should I Buy

Should You Buy CNH Industrial NV (CNH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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