Not a good buy right now: CMP is extended near resistance (26.8 vs R2 ~27.21) with RSI ~70.9, and an earnings event is imminent (after-hours 2026-02-04), which can whipsaw price.
Price is already above the most recent Street price targets ($21–$25), limiting near-term upside vs. perceived fair value.
Despite a bullish trend and hedge-fund buying, the risk/reward today favors avoiding/paring exposure rather than chasing strength.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating an ongoing uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.0422), supporting continued upside momentum.
Overbought/extension: RSI_6 ~70.94 (hot/near-overbought), increasing pullback risk, especially into resistance.
Levels: Pivot 24.96; resistance R1 26.35 (already cleared) and R2 27.21 (nearby). Limited room before next resistance, making entries here less attractive for an impatient buyer.
Pattern/forward bias: Similar-pattern study implies ~50% chance of -0.61% next day and -4.3% next month—near-term drift skews slightly negative.
Positioning: Put/Call OI ratio 0.24 is call-heavy (bullish sentiment/positioning).
Activity: Option volume is extremely light (total volume ~10; call volume reported 0), so the sentiment read is less reliable.
Volatility: IV 30d ~64.5% vs historical vol ~48.3% (options priced rich); IV percentile ~53 suggests mid-range relative expensiveness.
Takeaway: Options market leans bullish on positioning, but thin volume + elevated IV reduces the attractiveness of chasing upside via new entries right before earnings.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
Near-term catalyst: Q1 earnings after-hours 2026-02-04; expectations call for EPS around $0.26 (news) and EPS est shown as 0.11 on the calendar—any upside surprise could extend the uptrend.
Guidance support: Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 of $200M–$240M provides a constructive framework.
Flow/support: Hedge funds are reported net buyers (+302.06% buying amount over last quarter).
Weather tailwind (per BMO): Winter snow days trending well above historical averages in key de-icing markets could support salt volumes/pricing.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
sits above the latest published targets ($21–$25), implying limited upside and higher downgrade/target-reset risk.
2025-12-11 Deutsche Bank: Kept Buy but cut PT to $21 (concern on FY26 deicing volumes vs expectations).
Price target trend vs current: Targets cluster $21–$25 while CMP trades ~26.8, meaning the stock is already pricing in (or exceeding) the bull case.
Wall St pros: Weather/de-icing tailwinds, operational focus, EBITDA guidance.
Wall St cons: Volume outlook uncertainty, targets below market, and execution risk showing up in weak EPS despite improving gross margin.
Wall Street analysts forecast CMP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CMP is 22.67 USD with a low forecast of 21 USD and a high forecast of 25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CMP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CMP is 22.67 USD with a low forecast of 21 USD and a high forecast of 25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 21.750
Low
21
Averages
22.67
High
25
Current: 21.750
Low
21
Averages
22.67
High
25
BMO Capital
Market Perform
maintain
$20 -> $25
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
Reason
BMO Capital
Price Target
$20 -> $25
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
maintain
Market Perform
Reason
BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on Compass Minerals to $25 from $20 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. Winter-to-date snow days are trending 50%+ greater than long-term historical averages across key markets in Compass Minerals' Great Lakes and U.S. Midwest core Highway Deicing rock salt markets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm continues to appreciate management's long-term approach to costs, Goderich, and the balance sheet.
Freedom Capital
Buy
initiated
$22
2025-12-16
Reason
Freedom Capital
Price Target
$22
2025-12-16
initiated
Buy
Reason
Freedom Capital initiated coverage of Compass Minerals with a Buy rating and $22 price target. The company produces essential minerals, including salt for highway de-icing, consumer and industrial markets, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Compass will see modest revenue growth and healthy margins.
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