Should I Buy CMI? CMI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Cummins Inc (CMI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

577.730

1 Day change

6.86%

52 Week Range

617.980

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: price ($613.51) is stretched/overbought (RSI-6 ~77.9) and sitting just below key resistance (R2 ~615.81), which skews near-term risk/reward to the downside for an impatient buyer.
Major near-term event risk: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-05 pre-market; options imply elevated uncertainty (IV percentile ~82.8).
Sentiment is mixed: Street targets have been raised and several firms remain bullish, but the latest notable action is a valuation-driven downgrade (Wolfe) and insiders are selling aggressively.
Intellectia signals are not providing a tactical “must-buy” setup today (no AI Stock Picker / no SwingMax), so there’s no proprietary edge to justify chasing strength into resistance.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram positive and expanding (0.455) suggests the intermediate trend remains up.
Momentum/extension: RSI-6 at ~77.9 indicates the move is extended; odds favor consolidation or pullback rather than a clean continuation immediately.
Key levels: Pivot ~586.09 (important support zone). Near-term resistance at R2 ~615.81; current price ~$613.51 is very close to that ceiling.
Pattern-based forward bias (similar candlesticks): modest drift next week (+1%) but negative bias over next month (-2.32%), aligning with “extended uptrend → mean reversion” risk.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Neutral

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Open-interest put/call 0.79 is call-leaning (generally bullish), while volume put/call 0.97 is near-neutral (little directional conviction intraday).
Volatility: Implied vol (30d) ~29.28 vs historical vol ~35.99; IV percentile ~82.8 signals options are pricing elevated event risk (consistent with imminent earnings).
Activity: Today’s options volume ~~947 is ~124.9% of 30-day average; open interest also elevated (~~122.9% vs avg), suggesting heightened attention into earnings.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analysts continue to highlight multi-year tailwinds (clean-air regs/EPA 2027 dynamics, power generation demand tied to data centers/AI, improving cash conversion) and several firms recently raised price targets.
suggests traders are still positioned more for upside than downside.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

reflects meaningful gap-risk.
is negative YoY (revenue, EPS, net income all down), which can re-surface if guidance disappoints.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $8.317B (-1.64% YoY) — slight top-line contraction.
Profitability: Net income $536M (-33.75% YoY); EPS $3.86 (-34.13% YoY) — notable earnings compression.
Margins: Gross margin 25.19% (down ~0.43% YoY) — mild deterioration.
Overall: the most recent quarter shows weakening YoY growth/earnings momentum, which raises the bar for the upcoming QDEC 2025 report.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Multiple price target raises and reiterated Buy/Overweight ratings (Barclays to $610 Overweight; Wells Fargo to $630 Overweight; Truist to $653 Buy; Citi to $580 Buy; Argus to $573 Buy), reflecting optimism into 2026.
Notable negative change: Wolfe Research downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform and removed its $540 PT, explicitly citing more balanced risk/reward after strong outperformance (valuation-driven).
Wall Street pros: structural tailwinds (emissions/regulation cycle, power gen/data center demand, improving cash conversion, potential truck-cycle bottoming into 2H 2026).
Wall Street cons: valuation/risk-reward now less compelling at current levels, near-term truck demand still soft, and investors will watch for backlog cracks as capacity comes online.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available; no politician/influential-figure transactions were provided.

13 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CMI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CMI is 538 USD with a low forecast of 385 USD and a high forecast of 653 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

7 Buy

6 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 540.650

Low

385

Averages

538

High

653

Current: 540.650

Low

385

Averages

538

High

653

Bernstein

Market Perform

maintain

$544 -> $600

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Bernstein

Price Target

$544 -> $600

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Market Perform

Reason

Bernstein raised the firm's price target on Cummins to $600 from $544 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares following quarterly results. The firm notes the guide came in below street driven by margin expectations. As a result, the stock finished down 11%, an outsized move for a modest guide down that could be viewed through the lens of conservatism, Bernstein argues.

Truist

Buy

maintain

$653 -> $703

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$653 -> $703

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

Truist raised the firm's price target on Cummins to $703 from $653 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company demonstrated strong performance across the portfolio, though it missed consensus Power Systems estimates despite strong results, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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CMI Should I Buy

CMI Should I Buy

Should You Buy Cummins Inc (CMI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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