Not a good buy right now at ~$292.94: price is extended/overbought (RSI-6 86) and sitting just below near-term resistance ($293.74), which limits attractive immediate upside for an impatient entry.
Business/news momentum is strong (QDEC 2025 earnings beat + record 2025 results), but the market has largely priced in the good news after a strong uptrend.
Sentiment checks are mixed: options positioning leans bullish (more calls than puts), but Congress activity shows only sales recently (0 buys / 4 sells), a notable near-term negative signal.
Best stance: Hold/avoid chasing here; it’s a buy only on a dip closer to support (~$286 or lower) rather than at current overbought levels.
Pivot: ~286.27 (important “line in the sand” for bulls)
Resistance: R1 ~293.74 (current price is just below), then R2 ~298.36
Support: S1 ~278.79
Pattern-based forward odds (provided): modest upside next week (+0.59%) but negative bias over next month (-0.9%), aligning with “extended” conditions.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Put/Call OI ratio 0.81 → slightly call-leaning (mildly bullish).
Flow today: Put/Call volume ratio 0.39 with calls (611) > puts (238) → bullish day-to-day tone.
Activity level: Today’s volume ~48% of 30-day average → not a high-conviction “stampede” despite bullish tilt.
Volatility: IV30 ~19.67 vs HV ~17.73 (small premium); IV percentile ~35.6 and IV rank ~3.07 → options not pricing extreme fear/uncertainty.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
QDEC 2025 earnings beat: non-GAAP EPS 2.77 vs 2.74 est; revenue 1.65B (beat) — supports the bullish trend.
Record 2025 results: total revenue $6.5B (+6% YoY) and net income $4.1B — reinforces durability/quality of the franchise.
Macro sensitivity: exchange/derivatives businesses can benefit from elevated rates/volatility regimes via higher trading/hedging activity (consistent with “healthy transactional activity” commentary).
Analyst support at the top end: Morgan Stanley Overweight with PT raised to $320.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
→ poor risk/reward for a fresh, impatient entry.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter (QDEC 2025, reported 2026-02-04 pre-market): EPS 2.77 vs 2.74 est; revenue 1.65B — confirms continued execution.
Full-year 2025: total revenue $6.5B (+6% YoY) and net income $4.1B — steady growth with strong profitability.
Prior snapshot (2025/Q3): revenue +18.19% YoY to 3.086B, while net income (-0.52% YoY) and EPS (-0.40% YoY) were roughly flat → growth led by top-line/volume, not major EPS expansion in that quarter.
Flows: Hedge funds and insiders are neutral (no significant recent trend), offering no additional bullish confirmation.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets have been raised by multiple firms into late 2025, suggesting improving confidence into 2026.
Latest calls:
Morgan Stanley (2025-12-22): Overweight, PT raised to $320 (positive transactional activity view)
Barclays (2025-12-12): Equal Weight, PT raised to $304 (constructive markets, mixed outlook for exchanges)
BofA (2025-12-10): Underperform, PT raised to $209 (still materially bearish vs current price)
Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: resilient earnings power, strong/record results, benefits from active markets
Cons: valuation/expectations appear elevated given the large bearish PT dispersion; upside looks more incremental from current levels
Wall Street analysts forecast CME stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CME is 285.9 USD with a low forecast of 209 USD and a high forecast of 320 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CME stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CME is 285.9 USD with a low forecast of 209 USD and a high forecast of 320 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 297.380
Low
209
Averages
285.9
High
320
Current: 297.380
Low
209
Averages
285.9
High
320
UBS
Neutral
maintain
$280 -> $310
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$280 -> $310
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
UBS raised the firm's price target on CME Group to $310 from $280 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. CME has seen strong year-to-date performance, supported by elevated trading volumes amid renewed market volatility, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Growth is being bolstered by new initiatives, including recently launched event contracts and the FanDuel partnership, the firm says.
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
maintain
$319 -> $340
2026-02-05
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$319 -> $340
2026-02-05
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on CME Group to $340 from $319 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Amid renewed macro and credit concerns, the firm sees CME extending its futures exchange moat and paving way for new growth vectors that are not yet in the price, such as prediction markets, tokenization, 24/7 trading, and crypto, the analyst tells investors.
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