Buy CMC now: the setup is a bullish breakout (price above prior resistance) backed by improving Street sentiment (multiple upgrades/target raises) and supportive flow (put/call ratios bullish).
Near-term momentum is strong (MACD expanding, bullish MA stack), and recent insider buying plus a sizable institutional add strengthen the “buy-the-strength” case.
The main offset is mixed earnings quality (YoY net income/EPS down sharply despite revenue/margin up), but the tape + catalysts currently dominate.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) with price pushing above key resistance (R2 ~82.62) to ~83.16.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.254 and expanding → bullish continuation signal.
RSI: RSI_6 ~75.5 (extended/overbought-like), which often coincides with short pullbacks—but it also commonly appears during strong uptrends.
Key levels: prior resistance/now support near ~82.62, then ~80.90 (R1). Bigger support at pivot ~78.12; S1 ~75.34.
Pattern-based forward stats (given set): modest edge over 1-week (+1.45%) and 1-month (+0.46%), with coin-flip next-day directionality.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment skew: Put/Call ratios below 1 (OI 0.88; volume 0.58) indicate a bullish bias vs hedging demand.
Volatility: IV 30d ~41.6 vs HV ~43.7 (IV slightly below realized), with IV percentile ~70 → options are not “cheap,” but pricing isn’t screaming panic either.
Positioning/attention: Today’s total OI ~15,590; activity metrics suggest elevated participation versus typical levels (supports an active sentiment regime).
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
can attract momentum/CTA-type buying and force shorts to cover.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Earnings quality concern: 2026/Q1 net income and EPS are sharply down YoY (despite revenue and gross margin improving), which can cap multiple expansion if it persists.
Short-term extension: RSI_6 75.5 signals the stock is stretched; breakouts can retest prior resistance (82.6 / ~80.9).
Macro sensitivity: steel names remain exposed to demand slowdowns and cyclicality; analysts note demand outlook can be “muted” even if pricing holds.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2026/Q1.
Revenue: $2.120B, +11.03% YoY → top-line growth is solid.
Gross margin: 19.2%, +19.11% YoY → pricing/mix and/or cost control improved at the gross line.
Profitability: Net income $177.3M and EPS $1.58 both down sharply YoY (as reported) → despite better revenue/margin, below-the-line headwinds are significant and worth monitoring for sustainability of the rally.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Clear positive trend: a cluster of upgrades/target raises since late 2025.
Recent actions: Morgan Stanley Overweight with PT raised to $85 (from $68); Jefferies Buy with PT raised to $85 (from $78) after Q1 EBITDA beat; JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight (PT $78); BofA Buy with PT $80.
Wall Street “pros” view: resilient rebar pricing, supportive U.S./EU backdrop, import pressure easing, and tariff/protectionism tailwinds.
Wall Street “cons” view: demand outlook can be muted; macro/China-driven metals headwinds can still weigh on the group.
Wall Street analysts forecast CMC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CMC is 78.26 USD with a low forecast of 62 USD and a high forecast of 85 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CMC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CMC is 78.26 USD with a low forecast of 62 USD and a high forecast of 85 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 80.560
Low
62
Averages
78.26
High
85
Current: 80.560
Low
62
Averages
78.26
High
85
Morgan Stanley
NULL
to
Overweight
upgrade
$68 -> $85
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$68 -> $85
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
upgrade
NULL
to
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Commercial Metals to $85 from $68 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in North America steel as part of its 2026 outlook. It expects steel prices to remain elevated as 50% steel tariffs "remain firm." Morgan Stanley sees domestic mills continuing to take market share from imports on capacity increases despite a relatively muted demand outlook.
Jefferies
Buy
maintain
$78 -> $85
2026-01-08
Reason
Jefferies
Price Target
$78 -> $85
2026-01-08
maintain
Buy
Reason
Jefferies raised the firm's price target on Commercial Metals to $85 from $78 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Commercial Metals reported Q1 EBITDA of $317M, exceeding consensus expectations on stronger-than-expected shipment volumes driven by a favorable domestic market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Management emphasized near-term priorities of ramping organic growth, integrating recent acquisitions, paying down debt, and delivering a significant portion of planned cost savings in FY26, the firm adds.
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