CMA Should I Buy
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CMA is not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. Despite bullish longer-term moving averages and generally higher analyst price targets, near-term momentum is weakening (bearish MACD), insiders are aggressively selling, and a fresh discrimination lawsuit adds headline risk. If you must act today, this is better as a HOLD (or avoid starting a new position) rather than an immediate BUY.
Price is 91.99 (-2.48% today), sitting below the pivot (94.047) and close to first support (S1=90.093). Trend is mixed: the moving-average stack is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact, but momentum has turned down—MACD histogram is negative (-0.146) and worsening, which often precedes additional pullback. RSI(6)=43.8 is neutral-to-soft (not oversold), so there isn’t a strong ‘dip-buy’ technical trigger. Key levels: support 90.09 then 87.65; resistance 94.05 then 98. A durable buy setup would look better if price reclaims ~94 with improving MACD/RSI.
Event-driven: acquisition-related optimism (Street commentary expects the Fifth Third deal to close as planned in Q1), which can support the stock if deal terms remain intact.
Fundamental tailwinds cited by analysts for banks into 2026 (repricing tailwinds, balance sheet growth).
Reputational/regulatory positive: ‘Outstanding’ 2025 CRA rating and strong community lending figure ($8.3B loans cited).
New lawsuit headline: employment discrimination/DEI quota allegations (can pressure sentiment and create legal/PR overhang).
Insider selling: insiders are selling and the selling amount rose ~161.86% over the last month (bearish signal for near-term confidence).
Technical momentum deterioration: bearish, expanding negative MACD while price is below pivot resistance (risk of testing 90/87.65 supports).
Options tape: put volume dominating calls today (near-term caution).
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue grew to $781M (+4.55% YoY), EPS rose to $1.27 (+4.10% YoY), and net income increased to $164M (+0.61% YoY). This shows modest top-line and EPS growth with relatively flat net income growth—solid but not a breakout growth profile, consistent with a mature regional bank story.
Recent analyst trend is mixed-to-improving: UBS upgraded CMA to Buy (PT $106) ahead of the expected deal close; TD Cowen stayed Hold and lifted PT to $94; Evercore remained In Line ($89); Citi stayed Neutral ($88). Barclays kept an Underweight rating but raised PT sharply to $114 (a notable disconnect: higher target but still cautious stance). Wall Street ‘pros’ view: deal-related visibility and banking tailwinds into 2026 support upside. ‘Cons’ view: rating dispersion (many Holds/Neutrals), plus caution typical for regionals, suggests limited conviction—and insider selling strengthens the cautious case.
