Should I Buy CM? CM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

96.680

1 Day change

2.27%

52 Week Range

96.960

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now at ~95.45: price is pressing into near-term resistance (R2 ~96.19) after a strong move, so upside-to-downside is no longer favorable for an impatient entry.
Technical trend is bullish, but short-term risk/reward is stretched (RSI ~62, price near resistance) and options flow leans defensive.
Fundamentals are improving (FY2025/Q4 double-digit revenue, EPS, and net income growth), but the near-term setup suggests better entry on a pullback rather than chasing.
No Intellectia proprietary “strong buy” signals today to override the mixed near-term indicators.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.197 and expanding, confirming positive momentum.
RSI: RSI_6 at 62.56 (neutral-to-warm), not overbought but elevated enough that upside can slow near resistance.
Key levels: Pivot 92.971; R1 94.961 (already reclaimed); R2 96.191 (current price 95.45 is close, increasing rejection risk). Supports: 90.981 (S1) then 89.751 (S2).
Quant/Pattern outlook (next periods): Similar-pattern study implies modest downside bias (-0.96% next week, -3.47% next month), which argues against an “urgent” chase-buy here.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Open interest put-call ratio 1.05 is slightly put-heavy (mildly defensive).
Flow: Option volume put-call ratio 1.59 is clearly put-skewed on the day, pointing to near-term caution/hedging.
Volatility: 30D IV 24.83 vs historical vol 14.92; IV percentile 86 suggests options are expensive and the market is pricing elevated uncertainty.
Activity: Today’s option volume is far below recent averages (today 83 vs 5D avg 212.4 and 10D avg 372), so the put-skew signal is meaningful but not backed by big participation.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Uptrend technically intact (bullish MA stack + positive MACD).
- FY2025/Q4 results showed solid YoY growth in revenue, net income, and EPS.
- Analyst price targets have generally been raised recently (multiple firms), indicating improving Street confidence.
- Upcoming earnings (QJAN 2026 on 2026-02-26 pre-market) can act as a catalyst if credit performance and guidance hold up.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Price is near resistance (R2 ~96.19), making the immediate entry less attractive for an impatient buyer.
- Options sentiment is defensive (put-heavy volume and slightly put-heavy open interest).
- Pattern-based forward stats point to mild downside over the next week/month.
- No supportive near-term news flow; no fresh catalyst in the past week.
- Hedge funds/insiders show neutral activity (no strong “smart money” tailwind indicated).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: FY2025/Q4.
Revenue: 7.429B, +14.19% YoY (healthy top-line expansion).
Net income: 2.058B, +14.21% YoY (profit growth keeping pace with revenue).
EPS: 2.20, +15.79% YoY (earnings momentum positive).
Takeaway: Fundamentals are trending positively, supporting the longer-term bull case, but the current tape/positioning suggests waiting for a better entry than buying into resistance.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Multiple firms have raised price targets (Scotiabank, TD Securities, National Bank, Canaccord, Barclays) following stronger results and improved guidance.
Rating mix: Bullish voices (Scotiabank Outperform; TD Buy) vs neutral/hold (National Bank Sector Perform; Canaccord Hold; Raymond James Market Perform) and one notable bearish stance (Barclays Underweight despite raising PT).
Wall Street pros: Improving guidance/operating leverage potential, net interest margin has been a differentiator, and potential for lower credit costs.
Wall Street cons: Concerns that NIM may peak in 2026 and that near-term earnings upside may rely on further credit-loss (PCL) improvement where conviction is mixed.
Influence/insider/politician check: Insiders neutral; no recent congress trading data available.

9 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CM stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CM is 93.02 USD with a low forecast of 84.94 USD and a high forecast of 99.34 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

4 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 94.530

Low

84.94

Averages

93.02

High

99.34

Current: 94.530

Low

84.94

Averages

93.02

High

99.34

Scotiabank

Mike Rizvanovic

Outperform

maintain

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

Reason

Scotiabank

Mike Rizvanovic

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Scotiabank analyst Mike Rizvanovic raised the firm's price target on CIBC to C$138 from C$133 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

Barclays

Underweight

maintain

$119 -> $126

2025-12-08

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$119 -> $126

2025-12-08

maintain

Underweight

Reason

Barclays raised the firm's price target on CIBC to C$126 from C$119 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The company's fiscal Q4 results again exceeded consensus, driven by better than expected fee income, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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CM Should I Buy

CM Should I Buy

Should You Buy Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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