Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price is extended and overbought (RSI~89) after a sharp run, increasing near-term pullback risk.
Current price (24.61) is above the listed R2 (24.36) and already above/at the highest fresh Street target ($24), suggesting limited immediate upside vs. downside.
Options positioning is mildly bullish (put/call < 1), but elevated IV implies the market is paying up for protection/speculation into catalysts.
Insider activity is a key red flag (heavy selling trend).
Activity/attention: Today’s option volume is ~19.45x the 30D average (unusual), consistent with event-driven trading.
Volatility: 30D IV ~79.97 vs historical vol ~34.01 (IV is very expensive), implying the market expects large moves and option premiums are rich.
Skew/positioning note: Calls have higher OI (93,190 calls vs 59,501 puts), reinforcing bullish bias, but at elevated IV it can also reflect crowded upside bets.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Balance sheet flexibility improved: asset-based loan maturity extended from Jan 2027 to Jan 2031 (reduces near-term refinancing pressure).
Street narrative supports catalysts: operational ramp/regulatory clarity and contributions from the base business cited by Goldman.
Macro tailwinds cited by BofA: geopolitics lifting crude prices can support refining-related earnings power.
Upcoming earnings (2026-03-04 pre-market) can act as a catalyst if results/guide surprise positively.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
raise odds of a near-term retracement.
Financial Performance
Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.078B, down ~2.04% YoY (top-line contraction).
Profitability: Net income and EPS show large YoY declines (net income -411.53% YoY; EPS -405.93% YoY), suggesting earnings are volatile/impacted by mix or one-offs.
Margin: Gross margin jumped to ~34.67 (very large YoY increase), implying improved unit economics or accounting/one-time impacts; the divergence vs earnings decline suggests results quality/consistency is a question.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets have been revised upward into late Jan 2026.
Goldman Sachs (2026-01-30): Buy, PT raised to $24 from $20.
BofA (2026-01-27): Buy, PT raised to $24 from $23.
TD Cowen (2026-01-29): Hold, PT raised to $19 from $18 (and previously to $18 from $15 on 2025-11-11).
Wall Street pros: Multiple PT raises, Buy ratings highlight operational ramp, regulatory clarity, and base business strength; macro/geopolitical crude dynamics may help.
Wall Street cons: Leverage and MRL uncertainty are recurring cautions; importantly, at ~$24.61 the stock is already above the top raised targets ($24), reducing “PT-implied” upside right now.
Wall Street analysts forecast CLMT stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CLMT is 23.67 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 33 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CLMT stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CLMT is 23.67 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 33 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 24.540
Low
18
Averages
23.67
High
33
Current: 24.540
Low
18
Averages
23.67
High
33
BofA
Buy
maintain
$24 -> $28
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$24 -> $28
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on Calumet to $28 from $24 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. A combination of margin momentum and catalysts that could contribute hundreds of millions in additional EBITDA "calls for significant remaining upside to biofuels stocks from here," the analyst tells investors.
Goldman Sachs
Neil Mehta
Buy
maintain
$20 -> $24
2026-01-30
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Neil Mehta
Price Target
$20 -> $24
2026-01-30
maintain
Buy
Reason
Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta raised the firm's price target on Calumet to $24 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of the Q4 earnings report. Despite elevated leverage, the stock has potential catalysts from the operational ramp and regulatory clarity, alongside solid earnings contributions from its base business, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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