Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: trend is bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) and momentum remains negative (MACD histogram below 0).
Event risk is high with earnings after-hours today; consensus points to y/y revenue decline, and options imply elevated uncertainty (very high IV percentile).
If already holding, the $29.44 support zone is the key near-term line; a cleaner buy setup would be a reclaim of ~$30.83 pivot and then ~$32.21 resistance with improving momentum.
Price/Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked down (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), implying rallies are more likely to be sold.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.166 (below 0) and only mildly contracting—bearish momentum is still present, just easing.
RSI: RSI_6 at 43.44 (neutral-to-weak), not showing an oversold bounce signal.
Key levels: Pivot 30.826 (near-term decision point). Support S1 29.44 then S2 28.583. Resistance R1 32.213 then R2 33.07.
Pattern/stat tilt (given): 80% chance of -2.38% next day and -1.71% next week; modest +1.66% next month—skews against an immediate entry.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Open interest: Calls 2521 vs Puts 64 (OI put/call 0.03) = positioning heavily call-leaning, but not necessarily bullish near-term timing.
Volume/sentiment today: Put/call volume ratio 2.0, but absolute volume is tiny (todays_volume 6), so the signal is weak/fragile.
Volatility: IV 30d 87.01 vs historical volatility 45.12; IV percentile 92.8 = very elevated implied risk into earnings/event.
Activity vs normal: option volume today vs 30d avg 16.67 (spike), consistent with event-driven hedging/speculation.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Near-term catalyst: Q1 earnings after market close (potential for upside if they beat again; they’ve beaten EPS and revenue 75% of the time over the past year).
Medium-term thematic tailwind: BEAD-driven demand visibility improving into calendar 2026; some analysts expect sustained 20%+ growth when funding ramps.
Capital return support: expanded buyback (noted by multiple analysts) can provide a floor if results are merely “not worse.”
FY26 revenue target reiterated (post-divestiture) at $160M–$170M alongside new product launches.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Earnings risk tonight: consensus Q1 revenue estimate $31.7M implies a 10.7% y/y decline; downside reaction risk is elevated with high IV.
Technical backdrop is weak: bearish MA stack + negative MACD increases odds of post-earnings sell-the-news if guidance disappoints.
Recent downward revisions noted in news flow—suggests expectations have been deteriorating into the print.
Financial quality concern: gross margin dropped sharply y/y in the latest reported quarter (see below), which can pressure valuation and confidence even if revenue recovers.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $17.587M, +212.10% YoY (very large rebound off a depressed prior period).
Profitability: Net income -$9.078M (still a loss) and EPS -$0.66; both “improved” YoY but remain negative.
Margins: Gross margin 73.52, down -45.67% YoY—major margin compression is the key negative trend.
Growth read-through: top-line bounced strongly in Q4, but profitability and margin stability remain the main issues to prove in FY26.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Street stance is broadly constructive (Buy/Outperform maintained), but price targets were cut across multiple firms after the print:
Needham: Buy, PT cut to $45 from $50.
Lake Street: Buy, PT cut to $41 from $52.
Roth Capital: Buy, PT cut to $43 from $50.
Northland: upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform, PT $45 unchanged.
Wall Street cons: softer near-term guidance/seasonality effects, divestiture-related noise, and the need to re-accelerate growth while protecting margins.
Flows/behavior: Hedge funds neutral (no major quarterly trend) and insiders neutral (no notable last-month trend). Politician/congress trading: no recent congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast CLFD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CLFD is 43.5 USD with a low forecast of 41 USD and a high forecast of 45 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CLFD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CLFD is 43.5 USD with a low forecast of 41 USD and a high forecast of 45 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 29.080
Low
41
Averages
43.5
High
45
Current: 29.080
Low
41
Averages
43.5
High
45
Needham
Buy
downgrade
$50 -> $45
AI Analysis
2025-11-26
Reason
Needham
Price Target
$50 -> $45
AI Analysis
2025-11-26
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Needham lowered the firm's price target on Clearfield to $45 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company delivered solid Q4 results with consolidated revenue 2% above consensus, though its EPS of $(0.65) was impacted by a $10.4M write down of the divested Nestor BU, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Clearfield's prudent guidance implies core y/y revenue growth of 6% in Q1 and 10% in FY26 as the market adjusts to BEAD-driven demand and a likely fiber shortage in 2026, the firm added.
Northland
Tim Savageaux
Market Perform -> Outperform
upgrade
$45
2025-11-26
Reason
Northland
Tim Savageaux
Price Target
$45
2025-11-26
upgrade
Market Perform -> Outperform
Reason
Northland analyst Tim Savageaux upgraded Clearfield to Outperform from Market Perform with an unchanged price target of $45. Recent commentary from fiber access systems and backhaul suppliers around increased BEAD visibility in calendar year 2026, as well as a recent round of approvals of 18 state final proposals, are positives that were not reflected in Q4 results and weaker guidance driven by seasonality and the recent government shutdown, the analyst says. The firm believes BEAD and its associated positive impacts on private funding can help drive consistent 20%-plus growth for Clearfield, the analyst added.
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