Should I Buy CIM? CIM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Chimera Investment Corp (CIM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

12.380

1 Day change

0.16%

52 Week Range

14.880

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now: price is in a clear short-term downtrend (bearish moving-average stack + weakening MACD), and there’s no near-term catalyst/news support.
Options positioning is mixed but skewed toward hedging (put-heavy open interest), which aligns more with caution than aggressive upside.
Fundamentals (2025/Q3) show revenue growth but a swing to losses and negative EPS—hard to justify an impatient buy.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bearish moving averages (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) signals a sustained downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.0805 and negatively expanding = downside momentum strengthening.
RSI: RSI_6 at 31.336 (near-oversold zone), which can allow short bounces, but does not override the broader downtrend.
Key levels: Current ~12.44 is below pivot 12.67; near support S1 12.288 then S2 12.052. Resistance levels to reclaim: 13.052 (R1) then 13.288 (R2).
Pattern-based expectation provided: modest upside probabilities (next day/week/month) are small, suggesting limited edge for an impatient entry.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest put/call ratio 1.43: more puts outstanding than calls, typically signaling defensive positioning/hedging.
Volume put/call ratio 0.3 (calls > puts on the day), but total volume is very light (39 contracts), so the signal is weaker.
IV context: 30D IV ~25.61 with low IV rank/percentile (IV rank 14.62; IV percentile 23.6) suggests options are not pricing a big move; sentiment is not “panic,” but also not “breakout.”

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

if execution improves.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

and breaks above ~13.
- 2025/Q3 profitability deterioration (net loss, negative EPS) undermines confidence and can pressure mortgage REIT valuation.
citing “much lower” expected 2026 ROE versus peers—limits near-term rerating.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $221.404M, up +20.24% YoY (top-line improved).
Profitability: Net income -$21.997M (down -119.35% YoY), EPS -0.27 (down -119.42% YoY) — material deterioration and a swing into losses.
Margin: Gross margin 31.76, up +21.97% YoY, but improved margin did not translate into bottom-line profitability.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating/target trend is mixed:
- RBC (2025-12-09): downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform; PT raised to $13 (from $6) but expects weaker 2026 ROE vs peers.
- UBS (2025-11-18): maintained Buy; PT trimmed to $15.50 from $16.
Wall Street pro view: diversification and potential upside to mid-teens targets if ROE/portfolio performance improves.
Wall Street con view: relative ROE outlook vs other mortgage REITs is less attractive; limits multiple expansion and supports a more cautious stance near-term.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CIM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CIM is 14.5 USD with a low forecast of 13 USD and a high forecast of 15.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 12.360

Low

Averages

14.5

High

15.5

Current: 12.360

Low

Averages

14.5

High

15.5

RBC Capital

Outperform -> Sector Perform

downgrade

$13

AI Analysis

2025-12-09

Reason

RBC Capital

Price Target

$13

AI Analysis

2025-12-09

downgrade

Outperform -> Sector Perform

Reason

RBC Capital downgraded Chimera to Sector Perform from Outperform with a $13 price target.

RBC Capital

Kenneth Lee

Outperform

Sector Perform

downgrade

$6 -> $13

2025-12-09

Reason

RBC Capital

Kenneth Lee

Price Target

$6 -> $13

2025-12-09

downgrade

Outperform

Sector Perform

Reason

As previously reported, RBC Capital analyst Kenneth Lee downgraded Chimera to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $13, up from $6, as the firm sees Chimera generating "much lower" ROE in 2026 compared to other mortgage REITs it covers and sees better relative value elsewhere in the analyst's coverage. While the firm likes the direction Chimera is taking by diversifying its revenue streams and business model, it notes that its updated model anticipates Chimera generates 2026 EAD ROE of 9.5%, which it calls "much lower" than the mid/high-teens range ROE for agency-skewed MREITs in its coverage.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CIM

Unlock Now

CIM Should I Buy

CIM Should I Buy

Should You Buy Chimera Investment Corp (CIM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch