Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price action is still technically bearish and there is a major binary catalyst (earnings 2026-02-05 pre-market) in two trading days.
Upside exists versus Street price targets (most $305–$325 vs $270), but near-term headlines (Medicare Advantage rate pressure + PBM transparency push) keep sentiment fragile.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.357 (below zero) but “negatively contracting,” suggesting downside momentum is fading, not reversing yet.
RSI: RSI_6 = 53.2 (neutral) — no oversold bounce signal.
Levels: Pivot 274.07 is immediate overhead resistance; near supports at S1 268.06 then S2 264.34. A break below ~268 increases downside risk; reclaiming and holding >274 improves the near-term setup.
Pattern-based forward read (provided): mild negative bias next week (-1.01%) but positive 1-month skew (+6.36%), implying patience is rewarded more than urgency.
Activity: Today’s option volume is low vs 30-day average (~22%), so the bullish skew is not strongly “convicted” by volume.
Volatility: 30D IV ~31.2 with IV percentile ~56.8 (mid-range) — options are not pricing extreme fear, but not cheap either.
Takeaway: Options sentiment is modestly constructive, but not strong enough to override the bearish tape and near-term event risk.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
— a solid beat/raise could re-rate the stock quickly.
Longer-horizon setup: sector rotation thesis (managed care “de-rated underperformers”) cited by Barclays could help if macro/sector flows improve.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Event risk imminent: earnings in two days; if guidance disappoints, downside could be fast while the trend is still bearish.
Policy/headline pressure: CMS proposed 2027 Medicare Advantage rate update (~0.09%) has driven broad managed-care selloffs; sentiment impact can persist.
Regulatory overhang: Department of Labor proposal to force PBMs to disclose compensation increases scrutiny on PBM economics (relevant to Evernorth/PBM-related margin concerns).
Political/congress signal: last 90 days show 4 congressional sales and 0 purchases (net cautious signal).
Profitability: Net income $1.868B (+152.77% YoY) and EPS 7.02 (+166.92% YoY) — very strong YoY expansion (may reflect mix/one-time benefits; still favorable directionally).
Margin: Gross margin 8.52% (down 11.98% YoY) — confirms ongoing margin pressure even as earnings surged.
Overall: Growth is solid, but margin compression keeps the market sensitive to utilization, pricing, and PBM-related updates.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Mostly upward revisions to price targets in early Jan 2026 (Mizuho to $325 Outperform; Truist to $320 Buy; Barclays to $305 Overweight; Guggenheim to $318 Buy). Bernstein raised to $307 (Market Perform) after previously cutting to $294 from $346 in Nov 2025.
Key bear note: Cantor Fitzgerald warned of materially negative reactions for managed-care after the CMS 2027 Medicare Advantage rate notice, implying slower recovery for the group.
Wall Street pros: (1) Attractive entry points/rotation potential, (2) margin recovery opportunities cited for 2026, (3) targets imply meaningful upside from $270.
Wall Street cons: (1) MA rate/political influence risk, (2) utilization and PBM margin pressure uncertainty, (3) earnings sensitivity to guidance and medical cost trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast CI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CI is 335.63 USD with a low forecast of 300 USD and a high forecast of 378 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CI is 335.63 USD with a low forecast of 300 USD and a high forecast of 378 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 284.530
Low
300
Averages
335.63
High
378
Current: 284.530
Low
300
Averages
335.63
High
378
Barclays
Andrew Mok
Overweight
downgrade
$305 -> $303
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Barclays
Andrew Mok
Price Target
$305 -> $303
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Barclays analyst Andrew Mok lowered the firm's price target on Cigna to $303 from $305 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model post the Q4 report.
Cantor Fitzgerald
Cantor Fitzgerald
downgrade
2026-01-26
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald
Cantor Fitzgerald
Price Target
2026-01-26
downgrade
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald writes that Healthcare Insurance names should see a materially negative stock reaction after the announcement from CMS that the 2027 Medicare Advantage Advance Notice Rate would be around 0.09% on average vs. the investor Base Case expectations of 5%. It is unlikely that stocks in the space will see a quick recovery, as the rates indicate the entrance of a more political influence than seen in past rates, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Publicly traded companies in the space include CVS Health (CVS), Centene (CNC), Cigna (CI), Elevance Health (ELV), Humana (HUM), Molina Healthcare (MOH) and UnitedHealth (UNH).
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