Should I Buy CHMG? CHMG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Chemung Financial Corp (CHMG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

64.400

1 Day change

0.50%

52 Week Range

65.000

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price (61.1 pre-market) is pressing into near-term resistance (R1 61.869) with momentum cooling.
Upside to the latest Street target ($64) is modest (~5%), while recent earnings power weakened sharply (EPS -45% YoY), limiting near-term re-rating.
With no Intellectia buy signals today and no news catalyst, the risk/reward is not compelling at current levels; better entries typically come closer to the pivot/support zones.

Technical Analysis

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: no signal on given stock recently.
Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 (uptrend intact).
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.535) but positively contracting → bullish momentum is still present but fading.
RSI (6) at 69.14 → near overbought, increasing odds of a short-term pause/pullback.
Key levels: Pivot 59.013; resistance at R1 61.869 then R2 63.634; support at S1 56.157.
Positioning vs levels: 61.1 is above pivot and close to R1, so immediate upside is capped unless it cleanly breaks and holds above ~61.87.
Pattern-based odds: modeled path suggests ~+1.15% over a week and ~+4.97% over a month, but next-day expectation is slightly negative (about -0.14%), consistent with near-resistance stalling risk.

Positive Catalysts

- Technical uptrend remains intact (stacked bullish moving averages).
- Revenue grew strongly in 2025/Q4 (+16.45% YoY).
- Analyst action: KBW raised price target to $64 (from $60), implying some incremental confidence.
- Pattern-based projection leans positive over 1-week/1-month horizons.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Profitability deterioration: 2025/Q4 net income -45.01% YoY and EPS -45.16% YoY despite higher revenue.
- RSI near overbought and MACD histogram contracting → higher chance of short-term mean reversion.
- Price is near first resistance (R1 61.869), limiting immediate upside unless breakout occurs.
- No recent news catalysts to drive a momentum breakout.
- Flows: hedge funds neutral; insiders neutral (no strong conviction signal).
- Congress/politician activity: no recent congress trading data available.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: 29.243M, +16.45% YoY (top-line growth solid).
Net income: 3.252M, -45.01% YoY (meaningful decline).
EPS: 0.68, -45.16% YoY (earnings power weakened notably).
Takeaway: growth is coming through revenue, but earnings compression is the key concern and typically caps near-term upside until profitability stabilizes.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent change (2026-01-28): Keefe Bruyette raised PT to $64 from $60 and maintained Market Perform.
Trend summary: price target moved up, but rating stayed neutral.
Wall Street pros: slightly improved valuation view (higher PT) and the chart is constructive.
Wall Street cons: Market Perform signals limited expected outperformance; combined with the sharp YoY EPS drop, conviction for an immediate buy is restrained.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CHMG stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CHMG is 60 USD with a low forecast of 60 USD and a high forecast of 60 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 64.080

Low

Averages

High

Current: 64.080

Low

Averages

High

Keefe Bruyette

Market Perform

maintain

$60 -> $64

AI Analysis

2026-01-28

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Price Target

$60 -> $64

AI Analysis

2026-01-28

maintain

Market Perform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Chemung Financial to $64 from $60 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.

Keefe Bruyette

Market Perform

maintain

$55 -> $59

2025-07-21

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Price Target

$55 -> $59

2025-07-21

maintain

Market Perform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Chemung Financial to $59 from $55 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. Underlying trends remain positive, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CHMG

Unlock Now

CHMG Should I Buy

CHMG Should I Buy

Should You Buy Chemung Financial Corp (CHMG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch