Should I Buy CHKP? CHKP 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Check Point Software Technologies Ltd (CHKP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

180.910

1 Day change

2.64%

52 Week Range

234.350

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the primary trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and momentum remains negative (MACD histogram below 0 and worsening).
Pre-market bounce (+2% to ~~177.55) is still below the key pivot/resistance (~~179.70), so upside confirmation is not in place yet.
Options positioning is call-skewed (bullish sentiment), but elevated implied volatility into the 2026-02-12 earnings event raises near-term whipsaw risk rather than offering a clean entry.
Best stance today: HOLD / avoid chasing; reassess on a breakout above ~~179.70–184.84 or a cleaner stabilization near support (~~174.57).

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), implying rallies are more likely to be sold.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.516 and negatively expanding confirms downside momentum is still building.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~29 is near oversold territory, supporting the case for a tactical bounce, but not a confirmed trend reversal.
Key levels: Support S1 ~174.57 (then S2 ~171.40). Resistance/pivot ~179.70, then R1 ~184.84.
Near-term pattern stats: Similar-pattern model suggests modest edge over 1W/1M (+1.12% / +9.29%), but the 1-day expectation is flat-to-slightly negative, consistent with choppy bear-market bounces.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put/call ratios are low (OI 0.56; volume 0.21) indicating call-heavy positioning (bullish tilt).
Volatility: 30D IV ~34.17 vs historical vol ~28.33 suggests options are priced rich (common ahead of catalysts like earnings).
Positioning/liquidity snapshot (from provided day): Call OI 6,244 vs Put OI 3,478; total OI ~9,722; volume 256 contracts (not extreme), suggesting sentiment skew without obvious panic hedging.
Interpretation: Bullish skew supports upside attempts, but the elevated IV implies the market is paying up for protection/convexity ahead of the 2026-02-12 earnings catalyst.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Event catalyst: Earnings on 2026-02-12 (pre-market). A clean beat/raise could reverse the currently bearish technical setup quickly.
- Fundamental narrative: Cybersecurity demand remains durable; company highlighted as maintaining very high operating margin (~42% referenced in news).
- Strategic move: Acquisition of Lakera (AI security platform) and stepped-up R&D/marketing could improve product competitiveness over time.
- Relative appeal: News/analyst commentary suggests CHKP is valued below peers, creating room for multiple expansion if growth re-accelerates.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical overhang: Clear bearish trend + deteriorating MACD makes the stock vulnerable to another leg down if support breaks (~174.57 / ~171.40).
- Pre-earnings uncertainty: With earnings close and IV elevated, price can swing sharply on guidance even if the quarter is fine.
- Business risks flagged by Street: Memory cost headwinds and potential “pre-buying ahead of price increases” could pull demand forward and soften later quarters.
- Positioning/flows: Hedge funds are reported as selling, with selling amount up ~135% over the last quarter (negative near-term flow signal).
- Competitive narrative: Multiple analysts note CHKP lacks a “slam-dunk” AI story versus peers, potentially capping enthusiasm.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $677.5M, +6.68% YoY (steady mid-single-digit growth).
Profitability: Net income $358.7M, +73.37% YoY; EPS $3.28, +80.22% YoY (strong bottom-line acceleration).
Margins: Gross margin 86.94%, down ~0.55pp YoY (slight compression but still extremely high).
Takeaway: Fundamentals look solid with strong earnings power, but the market focus appears to be on forward growth durability into 2026 rather than trailing profitability.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Multiple firms cut price targets in January 2026 (JPM, MS, Scotiabank, Truist, RBC, Piper, Barclays), signaling a more cautious near-term setup despite generally stable ratings.
Current stance mix: Bulls remain (JPM Overweight; Truist Buy; Piper Overweight) while several are neutral/market-perform (Morgan Stanley Equal Weight; Barclays Equal Weight; RBC Sector Perform; Scotiabank Sector Perform; Citi Neutral).
Wall Street pros: Defensive cybersecurity exposure, very high margins, potential undervaluation vs peers, and catalysts from product investment/M&A.
Wall Street cons: Need for software growth acceleration, AI narrative perceived as less compelling, and near-term cost/headwind concerns (memory/firewall refresh dynamics).
Influential/political buying/selling: No recent congress trading data available; insiders reported as neutral (no notable recent trend).

26 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CHKP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CHKP is 227.67 USD with a low forecast of 195 USD and a high forecast of 285 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

10 Buy

16 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 176.250

Low

195

Averages

227.67

High

285

Current: 176.250

Low

195

Averages

227.67

High

285

JPMorgan

Overweight

downgrade

$251 -> $230

AI Analysis

2026-01-30

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$251 -> $230

AI Analysis

2026-01-30

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Check Point to $230 from $251 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares as part of an earnings preview. Software growth acceleration is needed for better outlook, while memory headwinds pose incremental risk for growth and margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Morgan Stanley

Equal Weight

downgrade

$212 -> $197

2026-01-28

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$212 -> $197

2026-01-28

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Check Point to $197 from $212 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. While Q4 results could actually be better than expected, the firm would view that largely as pre-buying ahead of price increases as memory costs continue to increase, challenging a firewall refresh moving throughout the year, the analyst tells investors in a preview for the cybersecurity group.

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CHKP Should I Buy

CHKP Should I Buy

Should You Buy Check Point Software Technologies Ltd (CHKP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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