Not a good buy right now: price is below key pivot (104.47) with bearish moving-average structure and weak momentum.
For an impatient buyer, the risk/reward is unattractive at 101.52 because the chart is still trending down and the next clear catalyst (QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-19 pre-market) is not immediate.
Options positioning (high put open-interest vs calls) and heavy insider selling tilt sentiment bearish/defensive.
Trend/momentum: Bearish bias—SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 confirms a downtrend.
MACD: Histogram -0.999 (below 0) and only modestly contracting → downside momentum is still present.
RSI(6): 40.07 (neutral-to-weak) → not oversold enough to justify an aggressive “buy-now.”
Key levels: Support S1 ~100.29 (very close); next support S2 ~97.70. Resistance/pivot at 104.47, then R1 108.65.
Practical read: At 101.52 the stock is hovering just above support; if support fails, downside opens quickly toward ~97.7 before any bullish confirmation appears.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Put open interest 624 vs call open interest 309 → OI put/call 2.02 signals defensive/bearish positioning.
Flow: Very low volume (4 calls, 0 puts) → limited real-time conviction; sentiment is inferred more from OI than from fresh buying.
Volatility: 30D IV ~26.98 vs historical vol ~33.09; IV percentile 34.4 / IV rank 4.72 → options are not pricing a major near-term shock.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
was strong (revenue/EPS/net income up sharply YoY).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Analyst tone broadly cautious: multiple Neutrals and an Underweight remain; recent target changes cluster near current price (~$98–$102), implying limited near-term upside.
Takeaway: Fundamentals in the last reported quarter were excellent, but the current tape/positioning suggests the market is not rewarding it yet in the near term.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Mostly Neutral/Equal Weight with targets drifting toward ~100; one notable bullish outlier (Truist Buy, PT 126).
2026-02-03: JPMorgan raised PT to 102 (Neutral); Goldman raised PT to 100 (Neutral) → modestly improved but still cautious.
2026-01-16: Barclays reiterated Underweight (PT 98); Morgan Stanley cut to 91 (Equal Weight) → lingering skepticism.
Wall Street cons: Mixed lodging trends and “soft-ish” near-term fundamentals; stock already moved on macro hopes, limiting near-term rerating without a catalyst.
Wall Street analysts forecast CHH stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CHH is 102.56 USD with a low forecast of 84 USD and a high forecast of 126 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CHH stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CHH is 102.56 USD with a low forecast of 84 USD and a high forecast of 126 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
5 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 106.530
Low
84
Averages
102.56
High
126
Current: 106.530
Low
84
Averages
102.56
High
126
JPMorgan
Daniel Politzer
Neutral
maintain
$95 -> $102
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
Reason
JPMorgan
Daniel Politzer
Price Target
$95 -> $102
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
maintain
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Daniel Politzer raised the firm's price target on Choice Hotels to $102 from $95 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the lodging group as part of a Q4 preview. Investor expectations "appear reasonably set" as U.S. Lodging trends remain mixed, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Goldman Sachs
Neutral
maintain
$90 -> $100
2026-02-03
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$90 -> $100
2026-02-03
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Choice Hotels to $100 from $90 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Goldman continues to expect U.S. RevPAR growth to accelerate from 2025, with some help from the World Cup and higher tax refunds/potential stimulus, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CHH
