Should I Buy CHD? CHD 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Church & Dwight Co Inc (CHD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

100.530

1 Day change

-0.07%

52 Week Range

116.460

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: CHD is technically overheated (RSI-6 ~88) after a sharp move up, making the near-term risk/reward unattractive for an immediate entry.
Options positioning is defensive/bearish (put-heavy), which often aligns with short-term consolidation/pullback risk.
Fundamentals and analyst commentary improved (portfolio cleanup + 2026 growth narrative, dividend raise), but the stock looks ahead of itself in the very near term.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive and expanding (+0.686) → bullish momentum remains in place.
Overbought condition: RSI_6 = 88.085 → strongly overbought; odds favor cooling off rather than a clean straight-line continuation.
Key levels: Pivot 94.62 (important support/mean reversion area). Immediate resistance R1 97.89 (pre-market ~97.82 is sitting right under it); next resistance R2 99.91.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest a transition phase; after a surge, this often precedes a range/consolidation.
Pattern-based expectation (provided): near-flat next day bias and slightly negative next week (-0.4%), which fits “pause/pullback” risk.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put open interest exceeds calls (OI PCR 1.46) and put volume dominates (Vol PCR 3.07) → traders are skewed to protection/bearish bets.
Volatility: 30D IV 27.64 vs HV 27.09 (roughly in-line); IV percentile 70.8 suggests options are relatively expensive vs its recent distribution.
Activity: Today’s volume vs 30D avg is elevated (10.65x), indicating heightened attention/hedging around recent events (earnings/analyst day/dividend).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst day + outlook: Management highlighted a favorable 2026 growth outlook and innovation plans; multiple firms raised price targets.
- Dividend catalyst: Quarterly dividend increased 4.2% to $0.3075; 30th consecutive annual increase supports “quality/staples” appeal.
- Portfolio reshaping: Divestitures/discontinued brands and acquisitions are viewed positively by several analysts as a path back to faster growth.
- Flow/supportive holders: Hedge funds are buying aggressively (reported buying amount +2536.43% QoQ).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Near-term technical risk: Extremely overbought RSI increases probability of a pullback/consolidation.
- Options market tone: Put-heavy OI and volume imply investors are positioning cautiously rather than chasing upside.
- Profitability/EPS pressure in the latest reported quarter (YoY declines), which can cap multiple expansion if it persists.
- Guidance skepticism: At least one major shop (TD Cowen) flagged guidance as potentially optimistic.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $1.644B, +3.93% YoY (steady top-line growth).
Gross margin: 45.85%, +2.46% YoY (margin improvement is a key positive trend).
Net income: $143.5M, -24.15% YoY (earnings quality/mix impacted despite margin improvement).
EPS: $0.60, -21.05% YoY (bottom-line softness is the main financial negative in the snapshot).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Clear recent trend: Broad wave of upgrades/target raises clustered on 2026-02-02 after earnings/analyst day.
Notable changes: JPMorgan upgraded to Neutral (from Underweight) and raised PT to $100; BofA reiterated Buy and raised PT to $115; Wells Fargo maintained Overweight and raised PT to $105; Morgan Stanley kept Equal Weight and raised PT to $105; Citi/TD Cowen maintained Neutral/Hold with PTs around ~$99–$100.
Wall Street “pros” view: Cleaner portfolio, better 2026 growth setup, innovation pipeline, resilient staples demand, and dividend credibility.
Wall Street “cons” view: Some believe guidance optimism is a risk and recent valuation/price action may already reflect much of the improved 2026 narrative.

16 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CHD stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CHD is 98.71 USD with a low forecast of 82 USD and a high forecast of 114 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

10 Buy

4 Hold

2 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 100.600

Low

Averages

98.71

High

114

Current: 100.600

Low

Averages

98.71

High

114

Morgan Stanley

Equal Weight

maintain

$100 -> $105

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$100 -> $105

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Church & Dwight to $105 from $100 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Church & Dwight highlighted a favorable 2026 growth outlook at its analyst day along with a Q4 EPS beat, solid innovation plans, and a culled portfolio ex-declining divested brands, the analyst tells investors.

TD Cowen

Hold

maintain

$97 -> $99

2026-02-02

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

$97 -> $99

2026-02-02

maintain

Hold

Reason

TD Cowen raised the firm's price target on Church & Dwight to $99 from $97 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm noted its portfolio reshaping accelerated organic growth but its guidance sems optimistic.

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CHD Should I Buy

CHD Should I Buy

Should You Buy Church & Dwight Co Inc (CHD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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