Should I Buy CGBD? CGBD 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

11.950

1 Day change

-0.29%

52 Week Range

17.920

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now for a short-term oversold bounce setup: pre-market ~$11.89 is sitting right on key support (S1 ~$11.883), with RSI deeply oversold—favors a mean-reversion pop.
Tactical levels: upside reference points are Pivot ~$12.376 then R1 ~$12.868; near-term failure level is S2 ~$11.578.
Not a trend buy: the broader trend is still bearish (moving averages + MACD), so this is best treated as a quick rebound trade rather than a longer-term momentum entry.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) indicates sustained downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0974 and negatively expanding = downside momentum still building.
Overbought/oversold: RSI_6 ~11.2 = extremely oversold; statistically increases odds of a short-term bounce.
Key levels:
- Support: S1 ~$11.883 (current area), then S2 ~$11.578
- Resistance: Pivot ~$12.376, R1 ~$12.868, R2 ~$13.173
Pattern-based forward drift (model): skewed slightly positive: ~+0.49% next day, +2.4% next week, +1.34% next month.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning vs flow: Open interest is call-heavy (P/C OI 0.07), but today’s traded volume is put-heavy (P/C volume 4.0) → hedging/speculative downside protection dominates today.
Volatility: 30D IV ~16.77 vs historical vol ~24.08; IV percentile ~1.2 / IV rank ~3.25 = options pricing is very subdued.
Activity spike: today’s option volume is ~6.65x the 30D average (though absolute volume is small), suggesting a sentiment/positioning change despite low overall liquidity.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Mean-reversion setup: extremely oversold RSI near support increases probability of a short-term rebound.
- Solid YoY growth in latest quarter (2025/Q3): revenue and net income up ~25%+.
- Next earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (After Hours) (Street EPS est. 0.38) can reset expectations if credit quality/dividend outlook holds.
- Sector note from coverage initiation: Citizens JMP framed recent BDC underperformance as potentially creating a longer-term buying opportunity (industry-level tailwind to sentiment).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Downtrend remains intact: bearish moving averages and weakening MACD suggest rallies may be sold until trend reverses.
- Options flow caution: despite call-heavy open interest, put-heavy volume today implies near-term defensive positioning.
- No supportive news flow: no recent news catalysts in the past week to force a quick sentiment reversal.
- Analyst stance is not bullish: recent notes skew Neutral/Market Perform with trimmed price targets, limiting near-term “upgrade” upside.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3
- Revenue: $63.57M, +25.41% YoY (strong top-line growth)
- Net Income: $23.90M, +27.58% YoY (profit growth tracking revenue)
- EPS: $0.33, flat YoY (0.00%) (growth not translating into per-share expansion)
- Gross Margin: 98.78%, slightly higher YoY (+0.21%) (stable/high margin profile)

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: overall Neutral/Market Perform bias; price targets have been trimmed.
Key actions:
- 2025-12-08 (Citizens JMP): Initiated at Market Perform; sees balanced risk/reward, notes BDC selloff may be a longer-term opportunity.
- 2025-11-11 (B. Riley): PT cut $14 → $13, Neutral; Q3 solid but risk/reward balanced.
- 2025-11-06 (JPMorgan): PT cut $12.50 → $12, Neutral.
Wall Street pros vs cons (summary):
- Pros: sector selloff viewed as potentially overdone; fundamentals (revenue/net income) improving.
- Cons: still viewed as fairly valued near current levels; limited conviction for upside without clearer catalysts.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CGBD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CGBD is 13.2 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 15 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

4 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 11.980

Low

Averages

13.2

High

Current: 11.980

Low

Averages

13.2

High

Citizens JMP

Brian McKenna

Market Perform

initiated

AI Analysis

2025-12-08

Reason

Citizens JMP

Brian McKenna

Price Target

AI Analysis

2025-12-08

initiated

Market Perform

Reason

Citizens JMP analyst Brian McKenna initiated coverage of Carlyle Secured Lending with a Market Perform rating. The firm expanded its coverage of business development companies. It thinks the recent underperformance across the industry is largely unwarranted. The selloffs have created "another compelling longer-term buying opportunity in these stocks," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citizens sees a balanced risk/reward for Carlyle Secured.

B. Riley

Neutral

downgrade

$14 -> $13

2025-11-11

Reason

B. Riley

Price Target

$14 -> $13

2025-11-11

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

B. Riley lowered the firm's price target on Carlyle Secured Lending to $13 from $14 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm views the company's Q3 report as solid but sees a balanced risk/reward at the current share levels.

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CGBD Should I Buy

CGBD Should I Buy

Should You Buy Carlyle Secured Lending Inc (CGBD) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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