Should I Buy CGAU? CGAU 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

17.330

1 Day change

5.29%

52 Week Range

20.400

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now (impatient entry): Price is still below the key pivot (18.398) even after the pre-market +2.51% pop to ~17.95, offering a favorable near-term rebound setup.
Risk/reward is attractive on the levels provided: Upside to R1 19.903 (~~+11%) vs. downside to S1 16.893 (~~-6%).
Derivatives sentiment is strongly bullish (very low put/call ratios + unusual volume), supporting a continuation bounce.
Caveat: Momentum is not fully repaired (MACD still deteriorating), so this is a buy for a rebound/trend-following continuation rather than a “clean” momentum breakout.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend (moving averages): Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating the broader trend remains up.
Momentum (MACD): MACD histogram -0.147 and negatively expanding → short-term bearish momentum/pullback still active.
RSI: RSI_6 46.24 (neutral) → not overbought; room for a rebound without immediate “overheated” conditions.
Key levels:
- Pivot: 18.398 (near-term decision point)
- Resistance: 19.903 (R1) then 20.833 (R2)
- Support: 16.893 (S1) then 15.963 (S2)
Pattern-based forward odds (provided): Estimated 80% chance of gains: +3.19% next day, +3.52% next week, +1.55% next month (treat as supportive, not decisive).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning is call-heavy: Put/Call OI ratio 0.05 (extremely low) and Put/Call volume ratio 0.15 → bullish/skewed toward calls.
Unusual activity: Today’s option volume 45 vs 30D average shows ~15.46x surge → sentiment/attention spike.
Volatility: IV_30d 71.07 vs Historical Vol 58.4 (IV > HV) → options pricing implies elevated uncertainty; market is paying up for exposure.
Open interest: Call OI 17,151 vs Put OI 921 → structurally bullish derivatives market.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst upgrades/target raises (recent): Scotiabank lifted PT to $19 (Outperform) and Canaccord raised to C$36 (Buy), reflecting improved precious-metals assumptions.
- Macro tailwind (gold): Higher gold/silver forecasts cited by analysts amid geopolitical/economic uncertainty and central bank buying.
- Financial momentum (latest reported quarter): Strong YoY growth in revenue, income, and EPS (see financial section).
- Upcoming event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-19 (After Hours) could act as a catalyst if operations and guidance reassure markets.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Event-driven overhang: Explosion at Langeloth facility (PA) injured workers and caused suspension of operations due to an uncontrolled chemical reaction (recent negative headline risk can reappear with updates).
- Short-term momentum still weak: Negative/expanding MACD histogram suggests sellers haven’t fully exhausted.
- Analyst dissent remains: BofA maintains Underperform (even with PT changes), highlighting a divided Wall Street view.
- No supportive “smart money” trend flags: Hedge funds and insiders are reported Neutral (no clear accumulation signal).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3
- Revenue: $395.163M, +21.99% YoY (solid top-line growth)
- Net Income: $292.188M, +914.82% YoY (massive profitability improvement)
- EPS: 1.43, +1000% YoY (sharp earnings acceleration)
- Gross Margin: 34.53%, +4.16% YoY (improving unit economics)
Overall read: The latest reported quarter shows strong growth and margin improvement, supportive of higher valuation if operations remain stable post-incident.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend (recent direction): Overall improving/upward revisions in early 2026:
- (2026-01-26) Scotiabank: PT raised $13.50 → $19, keeps Outperform.
- (2026-01-23) Canaccord: PT raised C$31 → C$36, keeps Buy.
Bear case on the Street:
- (2025-11-24) BofA: keeps Underperform, PT around $7.90–$9.10 (skeptical macro/commodity demand framing).
Wall Street pros vs cons:
- Pros: Rising PTs and bullish metals outlook support upside.
- Cons: At least one major bank remains Underperform; operational headline risk (facility incident) can cap multiples until clarity improves.
Politicians/Congress/influential trading: No recent congress trading data available; no politician activity provided.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CGAU stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CGAU is 13.57 USD with a low forecast of 9.1 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

2 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 16.460

Low

9.1

Averages

13.57

High

Current: 16.460

Low

9.1

Averages

13.57

High

CIBC

Luke Bertozzi

Outperformer

maintain

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

Reason

CIBC

Luke Bertozzi

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

maintain

Outperformer

Reason

CIBC analyst Luke Bertozzi raised the firm's price target on Centerra Gold to C$37 from C$30 and keeps an Outperformer rating on the shares. CIBC increased targets across the precious metals group after upped its gold price forecasts to $6,000 per ounce in 2026 and $6,500 in 2027. It also upped copper price assumptions. The same demand drivers from 2025 will remain in place in 2026 but there is heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Scotiabank

Outperform

maintain

$19

2026-01-26

Reason

Scotiabank

Price Target

$19

2026-01-26

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Scotiabank raised the firm's price target on Centerra Gold to $19 from $13.50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for Gold & Precious Minerals stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. The firm has increased both gold and silver forecasts, supported by economic and geopolitical uncertainty as well as strong central bank buying.

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CGAU Should I Buy

CGAU Should I Buy

Should You Buy Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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