Buy now: CFR is in a bullish trend (stacked moving averages) and just delivered a strong Q4 with buyback acceleration, which typically supports follow-through.
Near-term setup: Price (140.56 pre-market) is just above the pivot (139.37). That’s a favorable “buy near support” location for an impatient entry.
Upside levels: First target area 143.36 (R1), then 145.82 (R2) if momentum continues.
Main pushback: Options positioning (OI put/call 1.52) implies hedging/caution, but not enough to outweigh the trend + catalysts.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, indicating an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.181 (still below zero) but negatively contracting, which often signals selling pressure is fading and momentum is improving.
RSI (6): 64.68, near the upper-neutral zone—supports strength without being extremely overbought.
Key levels: Pivot 139.37 (important support/line in the sand). Resistance at 143.36 (R1) and 145.82 (R2); supports at 135.39 (S1) and 132.93 (S2).
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern model suggests ~70% chance of modest gains (about +2.14% next day, +1.38% next week, +7.27% next month).
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: OI Put/Call = 1.52 is defensive (more puts than calls open), suggesting investors are hedging or leaning cautious.
Flow today: Put volume 13 vs call volume 0 → very light tape, but skewed to puts.
Volatility: 30D IV ~32 vs HV ~27.46 and IV percentile 82.4 → options are priced relatively expensive and imply elevated expected move (often around event/earnings aftermath).
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Q4 earnings strength: Net income and EPS up YoY; results beat expectations per multiple analysts.
Loan + deposit momentum: Q4 average deposits $43.3B and average loans $21.7B; guidance calls for 2026 NII growth 3–5% and loan growth 5–7%.
Capital return: Repurchased ~654k shares ($80.7M) in Q4 and approved a new $300M buyback program.
Governance/expansion support: New board appointments (Shields, Rummel) aligned with expansion and oversight credibility.
Positioning: Hedge funds and insiders show neutral activity (no negative trend pressure).
Net income: $164.583M, +8.42% YoY (profitability improving).
EPS: $2.59, +9.75% YoY (earnings power accelerating).
Full-year: Net income $641.9M, +11.5% vs 2024 (broad-based improvement, not just one quarter).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Clear wave of price target raises after Q4, with multiple firms reiterating Buy/Outperform (Maxim to $161, TD Cowen to $160, BofA to $163, KBW to $160).
Mixed but improving consensus tone: Several “neutral/market perform/equal weight” targets lifted into the $144–$150 range (DA Davidson, RBC, Barclays), implying fundamentals are forcing targets higher.
Key bear case on the tape: Citi raised target to $125 but kept Sell, showing at least one major firm still sees limited upside/valuation concerns.
Wall Street cons: Valuation sensitivity and the possibility that strong results are already priced in (as implied by the lone Sell and defensive options skew).
Wall Street analysts forecast CFR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CFR is 139.78 USD with a low forecast of 114 USD and a high forecast of 154 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CFR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CFR is 139.78 USD with a low forecast of 114 USD and a high forecast of 154 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 143.600
Low
114
Averages
139.78
High
154
Current: 143.600
Low
114
Averages
139.78
High
154
Maxim
Michael Diana
Buy
maintain
$145 -> $161
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
New
Reason
Maxim
Michael Diana
Price Target
$145 -> $161
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
Maxim analyst Michael Diana raised the firm's price target on Cullen/Frost to $161 from $145 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is positive on the company's core EPS beat, with growth in lending and net interest margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
TD Cowen
Buy
upgrade
$154 -> $160
2026-02-02
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
$154 -> $160
2026-02-02
upgrade
Buy
Reason
TD Cowen raised the firm's price target on Cullen/Frost to $160 from $154 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they reported results which exceeded expectations on stronger-than-expected spread and fee income alongside lower expenses.
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