Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the stock is gapping up pre-market (~133, +5.42%) into/above near-term resistance zones after earnings, while the broader trend (moving averages) is still bearish.
Earnings were genuinely better-than-expected and sentiment is improving, but the setup favors waiting for a pullback (around 129–126) rather than chasing a post-earnings gap.
Options positioning is bullish (low put/call), yet elevated IV percentile suggests the market is already pricing in big moves; upside may be less “easy” from here.
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.198), implying improving momentum, but the larger trend remains bearish with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5.
RSI: RSI(6) at ~41.8 is neutral-to-soft (not oversold), so the gap-up is not coming from an “washed-out” condition.
Price action context: Pre-market 133 is above R2 (131.18), implying a breakout/gap that can be prone to fade without follow-through.
Quant pattern read: Similar-pattern stats indicate a 60% chance of -2.52% next day, -7.11% next week, -8.95% next month—argues against chasing strength.
Volatility: IV 30d ~34.52 vs historical vol ~40.29 (IV < HV), but IV percentile 82 suggests IV is high versus its own recent history.
Activity: Today’s option volume is low in absolute terms (22 contracts) but shows elevated vs recent average (reported 22.45x), indicating a burst of interest around the event.
Takeaway: Options lean bullish, but the elevated IV percentile suggests a lot of optimism/move is already priced in—less favorable for chasing the stock after a gap.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
with revenue $5.51B (+~6.2% YoY).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Primary trend still bearish: Moving-average structure remains negative (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), so rallies can be sold until trend flips.
Chasing risk: Pre-market gap to ~133 pushes price beyond nearby resistance (R2 ~131.18), increasing probability of a pullback.
Street caution on hardware budgets: Morgan Stanley highlighted the slowest hardware budget growth in 15 years and turned more defensive.
Profit pressure (recent history): Q3 showed net income and EPS declines YoY despite revenue growth, suggesting margin/expense sensitivity.
No proprietary buy signal today: No AI Stock Picker or SwingMax entry to justify an “urgent” buy.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter (Q4 2025, reported pre-market 2026-02-04): Net sales $5.511B (+6.3% YoY); Non-GAAP EPS 2.57 (beat by $0.13); net income reported at ~$279.5M.
Prior quarter (2025/Q3): Revenue $5.737B (+4.0% YoY) while net income fell to $291M (-8.03% YoY) and EPS fell to 2.21 (-5.96% YoY).
Margins: Q3 gross margin improved to 21.88% (+0.51 YoY), a constructive sign, but earnings power had still softened vs last year.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating/target trend: Net more cautious—multiple firms cut price targets; a notable downgrade came from Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley (2026-01-20): Downgrade to Equal Weight from Overweight; PT cut to $141 from $177; cited weak hardware budget growth and a “more defensive” stance.
Evercore ISI (2026-01-20): Kept Outperform; PT trimmed to $180 from $200.
Citi (2026-01-20): Kept Neutral; PT lowered to $148 from $160.
Raymond James (2025-11-25): Upgraded to Strong Buy; PT $185 (bull case tied to easing cost headwinds and AI opportunity).
Wall Street pros/cons view: Pros—earnings resilience, improving revenue growth, services/AI upside, dividend support. Cons—macro/hardware budget caution, recent PT cuts/downgrade, and the stock still needs a clearer technical trend reversal to justify chasing strength.
Wall Street analysts forecast CDW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CDW is 177.14 USD with a low forecast of 148 USD and a high forecast of 200 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CDW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CDW is 177.14 USD with a low forecast of 148 USD and a high forecast of 200 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 140.770
Low
148
Averages
177.14
High
200
Current: 140.770
Low
148
Averages
177.14
High
200
Citi
Asiya Merchant
Neutral
maintain
$148 -> $150
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
Reason
Citi
Asiya Merchant
Price Target
$148 -> $150
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Citi analyst Asiya Merchant raised the firm's price target on CDW to $150 from $148 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
UBS
Buy
downgrade
$190 -> $162
2026-02-05
New
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$190 -> $162
2026-02-05
New
downgrade
Buy
Reason
UBS lowered the firm's price target on CDW to $162 from $190 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Estimates have likely bottomed despite an uneven macro backdrop, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CDW
