Should I Buy CDNA? CDNA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy CareDx Inc (CDNA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

19.470

1 Day change

6.10%

52 Week Range

25.550

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the uptrend is still intact, but momentum is deteriorating (MACD weakening) while insider selling and policy/LCD uncertainty raise near-term downside risk.
Prefer a “hold / avoid chasing” stance at ~~$20.98 pre-market, especially with price sitting near the pivot (~~20.68) and below nearby resistance (~21.28).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure remains (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating the broader trend is still up.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0349 and negatively expanding → bullish momentum is fading and a pullback/consolidation risk is rising.
RSI(6): 55.34 (neutral) → no strong oversold/overbought edge for an immediate entry.
Key levels: Pivot 20.679; Support S1 20.073 then S2 19.699; Resistance R1 21.284 then R2 21.658. With pre-market ~20.98, upside is near-term capped by R1 unless volume/momentum improves.
Pattern odds (model): ~40% chance of +1.92% next day; +3.65% next week; +2.82% next month → modest positive skew, not a high-conviction timing edge.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning (OI): Put/Call OI ratio 0.34 (calls > puts) → generally bullish positioning.
Activity: Very low options volume (todays volume 4; put volume 4; call volume 0) → the “bullish” OI skew is not being reinforced by fresh trading today.
Volatility: 30D IV ~103% vs historical vol ~63.8%; IV percentile 84.4 → options are priced for large moves (expensive premium), consistent with event/catalyst risk rather than calm trend-following.
Interpretation: Sentiment skew is optimistic, but thin volume + very high IV suggests traders are paying up for protection/optional upside into catalysts (not a clean, confident signal to buy stock immediately).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

discussing AlloHeme findings/launch timeline → potential sentiment uplift if data/launch commentary is strong.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

on 2026-02-26 after hours → elevated gap risk into/after the print, consistent with high IV.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $100.055M, +20.72% YoY → strong growth trend.
Profitability: Net income $1.675M, -115.75% YoY; EPS $0.03, -115.00% YoY → earnings deteriorated materially despite revenue growth.
Margins: Gross margin 69.36%, +3.94% YoY → improving unit economics, but not yet translating into stable bottom-line growth.
Read-through: Growth is solid, but earnings quality/consistency is a concern heading into Q4 and 2026 policy-related uncertainty.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent changes:
- 2026-01-06 Craig-Hallum downgraded to Hold from Buy; PT $26 (risk/reward less compelling after recovery; 2026 outlook depends on final MolDX LCD; potential Q4 volume downside).
- 2025-12-15 Wells Fargo kept Equal Weight; raised PT to $18 from $14.
Street “pros” view: Revenue growth improving and catalysts (clinical data/webcast) can re-rate shares if results are compelling.
Street “cons” view: Policy/LCD uncertainty is a core overhang and recent profitability metrics have weakened; downgrade suggests upside may be more limited until reimbursement clarity improves.
Influential buyers/sellers: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds neutral; insiders notably selling.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CDNA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CDNA is 18 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 18.350

Low

Averages

High

Current: 18.350

Low

Averages

High

Craig-Hallum

Buy

Hold

downgrade

$26

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

Reason

Craig-Hallum

Price Target

$26

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

downgrade

Buy

Hold

Reason

Craig-Hallum downgraded CareDx to Hold from Buy with a $26 price target.

Craig-Hallum

Buy

Hold

downgrade

$26

2026-01-06

Reason

Craig-Hallum

Price Target

$26

2026-01-06

downgrade

Buy

Hold

Reason

As previously reported, Craig-Hallum downgraded CareDx to Hold from Buy with a $26 price target. With the shares having fully recovered to where they were before MolDX issued its restrictive draft LCD back in July, the firm believes the risk-reward appears less compelling. At this point, 2026 revenue and longer-term growth will be highly dependent on the shape of the final LCD. Craig-Hallum can conceive of a scenario where next year's numbers are too high and longer-term growth opportunities are less robust than it once believed. In the meantime, the firm won't be shocked if the Q4 2025 volume falls below the midpoint of management's guidance.

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CDNA Should I Buy

CDNA Should I Buy

Should You Buy CareDx Inc (CDNA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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