Not a good buy right now: price is in a strong downtrend (bearish MAs, negative/expanding MACD) and is trading below key support (S1=0.91) with downside risk toward S2=0.816.
Oversold RSI (6)=13 can produce a short bounce, but without an Intellectia buy signal and with weak fundamentals, the odds favor continued weakness over a clean reversal.
Options are extremely expensive (IV percentile 96.4; 30D IV 242%), implying the market expects big moves—this tends to punish impatient long entries if the bounce doesn’t happen immediately.
Hedge funds buying is a notable positive, but it’s currently outweighed by deteriorating revenue/EPS trends and no news catalysts.
Pattern-based short-term odds (model): 80% chance of +2.88% next day, but the broader week/month probabilities (+20.03% / +26.35%) don’t negate the current dominant bearish trend.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment skew: Put-call ratios (OI and volume) are very low → call-heavy positioning (speculative bullish skew).
Volatility: 30D IV 242.04 vs historical vol 126.24, IV percentile 96.4 → options imply extreme expected movement; premiums are very rich.
Activity: Today’s option volume is elevated vs 30-day average (15.28x), suggesting heightened speculation/positioning.
Interpretation: Despite bullish call skew, the extremely high IV suggests the market is pricing distress-level uncertainty; this is not supportive of a “clean” long entry without a clear catalyst.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
Hedge Funds are Buying: buying amount increased 361.26% over the last quarter (potentially supportive if they are positioning for a restructuring/turnaround).
Gross margin improved YoY to 45.27% (+3.21% YoY), a small operational bright spot.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
and close to S2 (0.
→ risk of further breakdown.
reflects market stress and can coincide with further equity weakness.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 52.03M, down -22.41% YoY → clear contraction.
Net income: -72.67M, down -49.94% YoY → losses deepened materially.
EPS: -1.36, down -53.10% YoY → worsening per-share profitability.
Gross margin: 45.27%, up +3.21% YoY → margin improvement isn’t offsetting the revenue decline and larger losses.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, so recent trend in ratings/targets cannot be confirmed from this dataset.
Wall Street-style pros (based on provided data): margin improvement and notable hedge-fund buying could hint at a value/distressed-turnaround thesis.
Wall Street-style cons (based on provided data): sharp YoY revenue decline and materially worse losses/EPS typically drive negative/reduced targets and cautious ratings; lack of near-term catalysts reinforces the bearish case.
Wall Street analysts forecast CDLX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CDLX is 1.63 USD with a low forecast of 1.5 USD and a high forecast of 2 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CDLX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CDLX is 1.63 USD with a low forecast of 1.5 USD and a high forecast of 2 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 0.865
Low
1.5
Averages
1.63
High
2
Current: 0.865
Low
1.5
Averages
1.63
High
2
Lake Street
Hold
downgrade
$3
AI Analysis
2025-05-08
Reason
Lake Street
Price Target
$3
AI Analysis
2025-05-08
downgrade
Hold
Reason
Lake Street lowered the firm's price target on Cardlytics to $2.50 from $3 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Cardlytics' solid Q1 and in line guidance is "encouraging," but the firm expects billings comps to be a headwind to growth the next two quarters, the analyst tells investors. Cardlytics "remains in the proving grounds, but there are encouraging signals Cardlytics could see a return to growth," added the analyst, who cites multiple compression in the space for the firm's lowered target.
