Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: trend is still technically bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and there are no near-term catalysts.
Price is sitting near the pivot (53.63) with pre-market weakness (53.15, -0.82%); risk/reward favors waiting for either a breakout above ~55.35 or a pullback toward support (51.91).
Sentiment is lukewarm: analysts are mostly Neutral/Hold with recent price-target cuts and commentary highlighting limited upside catalysts.
Trend/structure: Bearish moving-average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) suggests the broader trend remains down despite short-term stabilization.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.105) but “negatively contracting,” which can indicate downside momentum is fading (early stabilization, not a reversal confirmation).
RSI: RSI_6 at 56.77 is neutral-to-slightly-positive, consistent with a bounce attempt inside a broader bearish structure.
Key levels: Pivot 53.63.
Resistance: 55.35 (R1), then 56.41 (R2).
Support: 51.91 (S1), then 50.85 (S2).
Near-term probability (pattern-based): modest 1-day upside bias (+1.18% next day), but negative skew over 1 week (-0.56%) and 1 month (-0.88%), aligning with the bearish MA setup.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Open interest put/call ratio at 0.43 implies call-heavy OI (more bullish positioning than bearish).
Activity: Volume is essentially nonexistent (total volume 1; put volume 0), so sentiment read is weak/low-confidence.
Volatility: 30D IV is high (90.86) versus historical vol (33.35), but IV percentile is low (9.21) — this mix suggests the current IV reading is elevated in absolute terms while still low versus its own recent distribution; interpret cautiously given extremely thin option volume.
Participation: Today’s OI/30D avg ~102% with total OI 520; open interest exists, but day-to-day trading interest looks minimal.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
in revenue, EPS, and net income, supporting a fundamental floor.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
No news/catalysts in the last week; limited visibility on near-term drivers.
Analysts explicitly cite “limited visibility of catalysts” and concerns about premium multiples (valuation headwind).
Technical backdrop still bearish (long-term MA stack), increasing the odds that rallies stall at resistance.
Trading sentiment from smart money is muted: hedge funds neutral; insiders neutral; no notable momentum signal from proprietary systems.
Overall: fundamentals are solid/steady, but not “breakout” growth; supports hold-quality but doesn’t create an urgent buy setup without a technical turn or catalyst.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: predominantly Neutral/Hold; price targets have been trimmed overall.
2026-01-26 Piper Sandler: PT cut to $62 (from $64), Neutral; notes attractive vs. history but limited catalysts and premium multiples.
2026-01-09 Piper Sandler: PT raised to $64 (from $60), Neutral; reflects Finemark accretion and strategic fit.
2026-01-07 TD Cowen: PT cut to $55 (from $61), Hold; sector tailwinds noted, but target reduced.
Wall Street pros: acquisition-driven EPS accretion potential; broader bank tailwinds into 2026.
Wall Street cons: lack of clear upside catalysts and potential valuation/multiple constraint; targets suggest limited near-term upside from current low-50s.
Wall Street analysts forecast CBSH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CBSH is 61.01 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 67 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CBSH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CBSH is 61.01 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 67 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 54.390
Low
55
Averages
61.01
High
67
Current: 54.390
Low
55
Averages
61.01
High
67
Piper Sandler
Nathan Race
Neutral
downgrade
$64 -> $62
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
Reason
Piper Sandler
Nathan Race
Price Target
$64 -> $62
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Piper Sandler analyst Nathan Race lowered the firm's price target on Commerce Bancshares to $62 from $64 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. While shares' 24% underperformance vs. the KRE since year-end 2024 has resulted in a relatively attractive valuation compared to the past several years, the firm stays on the sidelines given limited visibility of catalysts to drive upside to its estimates and materially expand Commerce's current premium multiples.
Piper Sandler
Neutral
maintain
$60 -> $64
2026-01-09
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$60 -> $64
2026-01-09
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Commerce Bancshares to $64 from $60 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following the recent closing of the company's acquisition for Finemark National Bank & Trust. The firm's 2026 operating EPS moves to $4.25 from $4.00 to reflect anticipated Finemark-related accretion. Piper believes Finemark is highly complementary and additive to Commerce Bancshares' enviable wealth management platform scale and provides attractive entry to various attractive markets that could potentially enhance its organic loan growth tendency.
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