Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the primary trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and the fundamental/Street narrative remains deteriorating.
Price is pushing into near-term resistance (R1 ~32.71) after a bounce; risk/reward is unfavorable versus support (pivot ~30.61, then S1 ~28.51).
Options positioning is mildly bullish on put/call ratios, but implied volatility is extremely elevated (IV percentile ~96.8), signaling uncertainty/risk rather than clean upside conviction.
With no proprietary buy signals today and earnings ahead (2026-02-26), the setup does not justify a “buy now” entry.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), implying rallies are still counter-trend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.117) but contracting, suggesting downside momentum is easing (bounce possible, but not a confirmed reversal).
RSI: RSI(6) ~61.94 (neutral-to-slightly-strong), consistent with an oversold rebound that may be nearing resistance.
Levels: Pivot ~30.61 as key line in the sand; resistance at R1 ~32.71 then R2 ~34.01; support at S1 ~28.51 then S2 ~27.21.
Sentiment: Put/call ratios below 1 suggest call-side interest (constructive), but not sufficient to override the broader downtrend.
Positioning/Activity: Today’s options volume is elevated vs 30-day average (~132%), indicating event-driven attention.
Volatility: 30D IV ~73.25 vs historical vol ~47.75 and IV percentile ~96.8 (very high) → market is pricing large moves/uncertainty.
Open interest: Calls OI ~39,316 vs Puts OI ~25,925 (supports the lower OI put/call ratio).
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
and reclaims/holds above ~32.
Management actions cited by bulls (service/food quality focus; improving guest satisfaction scores per bullish commentary) could eventually translate into traffic stabilization.
can support short-term upside squeezes during rebounds.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Brand/traffic issues persist: reported ongoing traffic declines and “recovery visibility” concerns remain the dominant driver.
Earnings risk ahead: next report (2026-02-26 after hours) can reprice the stock sharply, and current IV suggests the market expects big swings.
Wall Street tone has deteriorated via broad price-target cuts and multiple bearish/neutral ratings; catalysts for improvement described as “thin” by some.
Trend remains bearish on longer-term moving averages; rallies may fail at resistance and revert toward support.
No supportive flow signals from influential buyers: hedge funds/insiders neutral; no recent Congress trading data.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2026/Q1.
Revenue: $797.2M, down -5.67% YoY (top-line contraction).
Profitability: Net income -$24.62M (down -608.3% YoY), indicating a sharp deterioration versus the prior year period.
EPS: -$1.10 (down -600% YoY), reinforcing that operating pressure is translating into losses.
Margin: Gross margin 68.84%, down -0.75% YoY (modest compression, but directionally negative alongside weak demand).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: overwhelmingly negative revisions—multiple firms cut price targets sharply following a fiscal Q1 miss and guidance reset; rating mix skewed Neutral/Underperform/Sell with one notable Buy holdout.
Pros: service/quality initiatives and guest satisfaction improvements could set up a longer-term recovery.
Cons: near-term traffic declines, lowered outlook, and poor visibility keep most analysts cautious-to-bearish right now.
People Also Watch
Wall Street analysts forecast CBRL stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CBRL is 28.86 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 45 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CBRL stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CBRL is 28.86 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 45 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
4 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 32.790
Low
20
Averages
28.86
High
45
Current: 32.790
Low
20
Averages
28.86
High
45
BofA
analyst
Underperform
downgrade
$34 -> $29
AI Analysis
2025-12-19
Reason
BofA
analyst
Price Target
$34 -> $29
AI Analysis
2025-12-19
downgrade
Underperform
Reason
BofA lowered the firm's price target on Cracker Barrel to $29 from $34 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. Cracker Barrel's weaker than expected fiscal Q1 results and lowered guidance reflect the protracted nature of the brand recovery, says the analyst, who lowers the firm's Q2 restaurant same-store sales estimate to down 7.7% as it anticipates a more protracted traffic recovery throughout the year.
Truist
Jake Bartlett
Buy
downgrade
$50 -> $45
2025-12-10
Reason
Truist
Jake Bartlett
Price Target
$50 -> $45
2025-12-10
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Truist analyst Jake Bartlett lowered the firm's price target on Cracker Barrel to $45 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q1 earnings miss and guidance cut. Sales trends have not begun to recover from the re-branding fiasco, or any recovery has been offset by macro pressures, but the management is taking the right steps to rebuild traffic by focusing on improved service and food quality, which is being reflected in strengthening guest satisfaction scores and will eventually be reflected in a traffic recovery, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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