Should I Buy CAR? CAR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

120.420

1 Day change

5.06%

52 Week Range

212.810

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: the trend is still technically bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and there are no proprietary buy signals to justify chasing an entry.
Near-term setup is mixed: price (~122 pre-market) is only slightly above pivot support (120.675) with notable resistance overhead (127.557), so upside is likely capped unless momentum improves.
Sentiment is conflicted: hedge funds have been buying, but insider selling has surged materially, which weakens the “buy now” case for an impatient entry.
With earnings on 2026-02-18 (after hours) and an EPS estimate of -0.12, the next major catalyst is potentially risky and not clearly favorable for immediate upside.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating the broader trend remains down despite the current bounce.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.216 (below zero) but negatively contracting, suggesting downside momentum is easing—more consistent with a bounce attempt than a confirmed reversal.
RSI: RSI_6 at 58.03 (neutral-to-slightly bullish), not signaling an oversold “snap-back” entry.
Key levels: Pivot 120.675 is the immediate line to hold; below that, supports at 113.793 (S1) then 109.542 (S2). Upside hurdles at 127.557 (R1) then 131.808 (R2).
Pattern/near-term probabilities (similar candlestick analogs): ~60% chance of -0.58% next day; +2.2% next week; +2.01% next month (modest edge, not strong enough to override bearish trend).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Neutral

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Open-interest put/call ratio at 1.2 suggests more protective/defensive positioning (bearish-to-cautious tilt).
Flow today: Volume put/call ratio ~1.01 is essentially balanced, implying no strong one-sided conviction in today’s options activity.
Volatility: 30D IV 49.6 vs historical vol 42.98 indicates options are pricing relatively elevated forward uncertainty; IV percentile 25.2 and IV rank 11.95 are low, meaning IV is not high versus its own history (not a panic), but still above realized vol.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Financial momentum in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3): strong YoY growth in net income and EPS, plus higher gross margin.
- Hedge fund activity: reported buying increased 185.60% over the last quarter (constructive institutional signal).
- Technical: MACD downside momentum is easing (bearish pressure contracting), which can support short-term stabilization if pivot support holds.
- Potential upside to analyst target: Morgan Stanley target at $142 is above current price (~122).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insider activity: insiders are selling, with selling amount up 32787.78% over the last month (strong negative sentiment signal).
- Technical trend remains bearish due to moving-average structure; rallies may fade into resistance (127.557 then 131.808).
- Earnings catalyst ahead: 2026-02-18 after-hours with EPS estimate -0.12 could weigh on sentiment until clarity improves.
- Analyst tone: Morgan Stanley downgraded to Equal Weight and is leaning more cautious into 2026 for the group.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $3.519B, +1.12% YoY (modest top-line growth).
Net income: $359M, +51.48% YoY (strong profitability expansion).
EPS: $10.11, +52.26% YoY (strong earnings growth).
Gross margin: 38.99, +20.71% YoY (margin improvement supports earnings quality).
Takeaway: fundamentals (profit/margin) are improving, but the market is not yet reflecting this in a sustained technical uptrend.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

2025-12-08: Morgan Stanley downgraded CAR to Equal Weight from Overweight, while raising the price target to $142 (from $115).
Interpretation: Wall Street view here is “valuation/upsides exist, but risk/reward is less compelling into 2026,” consistent with a more cautious sector stance.
Pros (Street view): higher target vs current price implies upside if execution holds; improved profitability supports the bull case.
Cons (Street view): downgrade signals reduced conviction; macro/industry caution into 2026 increases the bar for a clean re-rating.
Politicians/influential figures: no recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days (no actionable political flow signal).

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CAR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CAR is 122 USD with a low forecast of 105 USD and a high forecast of 142 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

4 Hold

2 Sell

Moderate Sell

Current: 114.615

Low

105

Averages

122

High

142

Current: 114.615

Low

105

Averages

122

High

142

Morgan Stanley

Overweight -> Equal Weight

downgrade

$115 -> $142

AI Analysis

2025-12-08

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$115 -> $142

AI Analysis

2025-12-08

downgrade

Overweight -> Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley downgraded Avis Budget to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $142, up from $115, following a change in analysts. The firm adjusted ratings in the autos and shared mobility group as part of its 2026 outlook. Morgan Stanley is "leaning more cautious" into next year, saying the electric vehicle "winter" will sustain through 2026. This is counterbalanced by a "moderately more positive" outlook on internal combustion engines and hybrids, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Barclays

Equal Weight

downgrade

$150 -> $120

2025-11-03

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$150 -> $120

2025-11-03

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Avis Budget to $120 from $150 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares following the Q3 report.

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CAR Should I Buy

CAR Should I Buy

Should You Buy Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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