Should I Buy CALC? CALC 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy CalciMedica Inc (CALC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

0.600

1 Day change

-1.80%

52 Week Range

7.200

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: the stock is in a post-event breakdown after the Phase 2 KOURAGE trial discontinuation, and price is trading far below prior support levels.
Extreme oversold readings (RSI ~5) can spark a dead-cat bounce, but without Intellectia buy signals today and with unresolved safety/path-forward uncertainty, the risk/reward is unfavorable for an impatient buyer.
Net: avoid new entry here; if holding, bias is to exit rather than try to time a rebound.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: price has effectively broken below the listed S1 (1.167) and is trading around ~0.60 pre-market, signaling a strong bearish regime and failed support.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.595 (below zero) shows bearish momentum, though it is “negatively contracting,” which can indicate downside momentum is slowing (not the same as a reversal).
RSI: RSI_6 at ~5.4 indicates extremely oversold conditions; short-term bounces are possible but are often unreliable after major negative catalysts.
Moving averages: converging MAs suggest compression after a sharp move; direction remains bearish until price reclaims key levels.
Key levels: Pivot 3.213 and R1 5.259 are far overhead; near-term focus is whether price can reclaim 1.167 (prior S1) to signal stabilization.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Positive Catalysts

- Oppenheimer view: management suggested the safety concern may be trial-design related rather than drug-related; firm considers shares oversold and still sees opportunity in AP (acute pancreatitis).
- Technical setup: extremely oversold RSI can produce a short-term reflex rally.
- Pattern-based forecast provided indicates modest upside probabilities over 1D/1W/1M (though low magnitude).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Major event-driven hit: Phase 2 KOURAGE trial in acute kidney injury discontinued due to safety concerns; this removes a key catalyst and raises uncertainty.
- Analyst action: H.C. Wainwright downgraded to Neutral from Buy (no PT), explicitly citing catalyst removal and pending clarity from unblinded dataset review.
- Trading position: price well below prior support implies persistent selling pressure and weak technical sponsorship.
- No supportive flow signals: hedge funds and insiders reported as Neutral (no notable accumulation trend).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: effectively 0 (no meaningful commercial revenue base).
Profitability: net loss improved YoY (net income to -$7.804M, +38.91% YoY improvement), but business remains loss-making.
EPS: -0.52 (improved ~4% YoY), indicating incremental improvement but still dependent on clinical/financing outcomes typical of pre-revenue biotech.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: mixed but deteriorating on the most recent catalyst.
2026-01-29: H.C. Wainwright downgraded to Neutral from Buy (no price target), citing immediate KOURAGE discontinuation removing a major catalyst; waiting for safety/population clarity from unblinded review.
2026-01-28: Oppenheimer reiterated Outperform after speaking with management; calls stock oversold/undervalued and argues AP opportunity alone supports upside.
Wall Street pros/cons view: bulls focus on potential that safety issue is trial-specific and remaining Auxora opportunity; bears focus on halted AKI trial, uncertainty around safety interpretation, and near-term catalyst vacuum.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CALC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CALC is 20 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 20 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 0.611

Low

Averages

High

Current: 0.611

Low

Averages

High

H.C. Wainwright

Buy -> Neutral

downgrade

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

Reason

H.C. Wainwright

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

downgrade

Buy -> Neutral

Reason

H.C. Wainwright downgraded CalciMedica to Neutral from Buy without a price target. The immediate discontinuation for the Phase 2 KOURAGE clinical trial in acute kidney injury removes a major catalyst for the shares, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm looks to upcoming safety and population clarity as the company reviews the unblinded dataset to determine a potential path forward.

Oppenheimer

maintain

2026-01-28

Reason

Oppenheimer

Price Target

2026-01-28

maintain

Reason

After CalciMedica announced the discontinuation of its Phase 2 KOURAGE clinical trial evaluating Auxora in patients with Stage 2 or Stage 3 acute kidney injury, Oppenheimer caught up with management, who said the safety concern identified by the independent committee's review of unblinded data "appears to stem not from the drug itself, but from aspects of this particular trial." The firm, which sees the stock as oversold on today's news and "significantly undervalued here," says even if one removes any revenue potential in AKI from projections, Auxora's derisked $200M opportunity in AP alone supports a favorable outlook. The firm has an Outperform rating on CalciMedica shares.

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CALC Should I Buy

CALC Should I Buy

Should You Buy CalciMedica Inc (CALC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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