Should I Buy CAL? CAL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Caleres Inc (CAL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

12.980

1 Day change

3.18%

52 Week Range

18.270

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and there is no proprietary buy signal.
Options are bullish-leaning (call-heavy flow and low put/call volume), but the extremely high IV suggests the market is pricing big moves and risk—without a clear catalyst this can fade.
Latest quarter (2026/Q3) shows revenue growth but a severe profitability collapse (EPS and net income down ~94% YoY), which weakens the fundamental backdrop for a quick upside follow-through.
Best stance now: avoid new buys; only reconsider if price reclaims/holds above the pivot (~12.98) and pushes toward 13.88 with improving momentum.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bearish moving-average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) signals the prevailing trend remains down.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.101 (below zero) but negatively contracting, implying downside momentum is easing (possible basing), not a confirmed reversal.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~52.9 is neutral—no oversold bounce signal.
Levels: Pivot 12.979 is the key near-term line; support at 12.077 then 11.52; resistance at 13.88 then 14.437.
Pattern-based projection: modeled odds suggest only modest near-term upside (+0.53% next day; ~flat next week) and a negative bias over the next month (-1.88%).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Open interest put/call ratio 0.7 indicates more call OI than puts (mildly bullish positioning).
Flow: Put/call volume ratio 0.25 and call volume (3981) vs put volume (979) shows strong call-dominated trading sentiment.
Activity spike: Today’s option volume is ~394% of the 30-day average, signaling unusually elevated speculative interest.
Volatility: IV 30d ~88.4 with IV percentile ~92.4 (very elevated). This often means options are expensive and the market is pricing a sizable move; bullish flow can help, but without a catalyst it can unwind quickly.
Takeaway: Sentiment in options is bullish, but the “priced-in” volatility reduces the edge of chasing the stock here.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Options market sentiment is supportive (call-heavy, low put/call volume), which can fuel a short-term pop if price breaks above the pivot.
- MACD downside pressure is easing (bearish momentum contracting), consistent with a potential base forming.
- Analyst still has a Buy rating (Seaport Research), implying at least one supportive fundamental view despite reduced expectations.
- No notable hedge fund or insider selling pressure flagged recently (both neutral).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical trend remains bearish (moving averages stacked bearishly), so rallies can fail at resistance.
- No news/catalyst in the past week; without an event, call-driven moves may be short-lived.
- Financial quality deterioration in 2026/Q3 (net income and EPS down ~94% YoY; gross margin down) undermines confidence in a sustained upside move.
- Elevated implied volatility suggests the market expects turbulence; if the move doesn’t materialize quickly, sentiment can reverse fast.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q3.
Revenue: 790.051M, up +6.63% YoY (top-line growth is positive).
Profitability: Net income 2.287M, down -94.28% YoY; EPS 0.07, down -94.12% YoY (major earnings compression).
Margins: Gross margin 41.76, down -5.37% YoY (core margin pressure).
Bottom line: Growth is present, but profitability is deteriorating sharply—this is not the kind of setup that typically rewards impatient “buy now” entries unless a clear reversal catalyst appears.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent change (2025-12-10): Seaport Research cut price target to $18 from $20 but maintained a Buy rating.
Interpretation: Wall Street view here is “still upside over time, but expectations were reset” after weaker-than-expected 2H25 results.
Pros (bull case): Maintained Buy suggests confidence in improvement ahead; target remains well above current price.
Cons (bear case): Target cut reflects reduced near-term confidence and acknowledges recent operational weakness.
Influential/politician activity: No recent congress trading data available (no signal from political trading flows).

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CAL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CAL is 18 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 12.580

Low

Averages

High

Current: 12.580

Low

Averages

High

Seaport Research

Buy

downgrade

$20 -> $18

AI Analysis

2025-12-10

Reason

Seaport Research

Price Target

$20 -> $18

AI Analysis

2025-12-10

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Seaport Research lowered the firm's price target on Caleres to $18 from $20 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Results for 2H25 were worse than expected, but the firm expects better results will come, the analyst tells investors.

Loop Capital

Laura Champine

Hold

downgrade

$16 -> $14

2025-05-30

Reason

Loop Capital

Laura Champine

Price Target

$16 -> $14

2025-05-30

downgrade

Hold

Reason

Loop Capital analyst Laura Champine lowered the firm's price target on Caleres to $14 from $16 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The company missed expectations with its Q1 results and pulled guidance, with the firm also having little visibility as the management only commented on the start of May and only qualitatively, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The shifts in tariff policy are creating enormous uncertainty, and Loop sees weaker sales and margins as a result, the firm added.

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CAL Should I Buy

CAL Should I Buy

Should You Buy Caleres Inc (CAL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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